Russia’s Hybrid War Against Ukraine: Counteroffensive Underway
On the 470th day of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine launched its counteroffensive aimed at breaking Russia’s land bridge to occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s push comes after months of a stalemate and months of preparation, ensuring that they could contest Russia’s established front line. The counteroffensive is critical, and the next few weeks could decide the fate of the war.
The summer counteroffensive started with wave after wave of attacks on Russian positions with a combined-arms formation backed by Western tanks. This long-anticipated assault is supported by a strategy that aims to keep the Russians guessing. The initial stages of the operation are expected to feature some probes and diversionary attacks rather than a big push, making it challenging for the enemy to predict Ukraine’s next move.
The summer counteroffensive is essential for Ukraine to challenge Russia’s military supremacy and prove that they can fight back effectively. Ukraine needs to show Russia that the war is not worth fighting and, more importantly, that the Russian aggression against Ukraine is not only illegal but also extremely costly.
Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine involves cyberattacks, espionage, disinformation campaigns, and military aggression. North Korean hackers, believed to be from the Lazarus Group, recently stole at least $35 million in cryptocurrency from Atomic Wallet. Meanwhile, Asylum Ambuscade, a Belarusian government-aligned hacking group, has been observed in recent attacks targeting small to medium-sized companies worldwide. The group combines cyber espionage with cybercrime, snooping in cyberspace about Ukrainian refugees.
In addition to the ongoing cyberattacks, the Kakhovka Dam Collapse in Russian-occupied Southern Ukraine has set off another round of tensions. Catastrophic floods have engulfed towns and villages in the region, leading to the destruction of habitats, killing animals, and unleashing pollution. The Ukrainian domestic security service has intercepted a telephone call that proved a Russian “sabotage group” blew up the dam, which threatens to deprive the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant of vital water supplies, raising the threat of a nuclear disaster.
These stakes have raised concerns about Moscow’s brinkmanship, with growing indications that the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown up after seismic data pointed to an explosion at the site. While initial analysis indicates that Russia deliberately destroyed the dam, holding the Kremlin accountable will prove extremely difficult.
On the strategic front, the United States has announced a new $2 billion Ukraine Air Defense Package, with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin missile systems included. The Pentagon has also confirmed that it is buying SpaceX’s Starlink broadband services to provide communications in Ukraine, highlighting the importance of cybersecurity and communication in modern warfare.
The geopolitical stakes of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are high, with President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meeting amid a turning point in the war. The Ukraine conflict has become a major challenge for the transatlantic alliance, as the Western countries are grappling with how to respond to the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine.
The latest counteroffensive in Ukraine is critical both for Ukraine and for the transatlantic alliance. Ukraine’s success in pushing back the Russian aggression could deter Russia’s future aggression and support wider stability in the region. For the West, the stakes are clear – to ensure that Ukraine’s sovereignty is maintained, and to avoid giving Russia a free hand to pursue its expansionist policies.