In a recent podcast episode titled “Risk Forecasting with Bayes Rule: A practical example,” Rick Howard, the CSO, Chief Analyst, and Senior Fellow at N2K Cyber, delved into the topic of cybersecurity risk forecasting. Joined by guests Fred Kneip, CyberGRX’s founder and President of ProcessUnity, and Kevin Richards, Cyber Risk Solutions President, Howard explored the current state of risk forecasting in the cybersecurity field.
During the discussion, Howard referenced his book “Cybersecurity First Principles: A Reboot of Strategy and Tactics,” which provides valuable insights into developing effective cybersecurity strategies. He also mentioned a bonus episode on his podcast series, in which he inducted “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Dr Phil Tetlock and Dr Dan Gardner into the 2023 Cybersecurity Canon Hall of Fame. This book explores the principles and techniques behind accurate forecasting.
The conversation touched upon the practical application of Bayes Rule in risk forecasting. Bayes Rule is a mathematical formula that allows the updating of beliefs based on new evidence, making it a powerful tool in cybersecurity risk assessment. Howard highlighted the importance of understanding the underlying data and assumptions when using Bayes Rule in forecasting.
Howard and his guests also discussed the significance of measuring and managing information risk, referencing the book “Measuring and Managing Information Risk: A FAIR Approach” by Jack Freund and Jack Jones. The FAIR (Factor Analysis of Information Risk) approach provides a framework for quantifying and evaluating cybersecurity risks, enabling organizations to make informed decisions regarding their security practices.
The conversation expanded beyond risk forecasting techniques as the participants explored the broader landscape of cybersecurity risk management. They emphasized the need for organizations to benchmark their cybersecurity efforts against industry standards and best practices. One resource mentioned was the Retail & Hospitality ISAC Podcast, where cybersecurity threats across the globe and benchmarking strategies with CyberGRX were discussed.
The podcast episode also touched on the topic of cybersecurity risk disclosure. They cited essays such as “Improving the Quality of Cybersecurity Risk Management Disclosures” by C.J. Lizárraga, which highlights the role of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in ensuring transparent and accurate cybersecurity risk disclosures by organizations.
The participants recognized that cybersecurity risk quantification is an important aspect of risk management. They referenced a survey conducted by Gartner titled “Benchmarking Cyber-Risk Quantification,” which provides insights into the practices and trends in quantifying and measuring cybersecurity risks.
Overall, the podcast episode provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of cybersecurity risk forecasting and management. Rick Howard, along with his expert guests, shed light on the importance of applying sound principles and techniques in the ever-evolving landscape of cybersecurity. By incorporating methodologies such as Bayes Rule and the FAIR approach, organizations can make informed decisions to protect themselves against various cyber threats. Additionally, the discussion highlighted the significance of benchmarking, disclosure, and risk quantification in a successful cybersecurity risk management strategy.