In a recent summary, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted the advancements made by Ukrainian forces in different regions, stating that they have marginally advanced on the east bank of Kherson Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage published on October 27 shows that Ukrainian forces have even advanced further south under the Antonivsky road bridge north of Oleshky, which is approximately 7km south of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that they have continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in the Melitopol direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Meanwhile, Belarus, which has been Russia’s main ally in its war against Ukraine, has called for a negotiated peace. President Lukashenka emphasized that there are many problems on both sides and that the situation has reached a serious stalemate, where no side can substantially strengthen or advance their position.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has observed the ongoing difficulties faced by Russia in the Avdiivka region. The MoD stated that heavy but inconclusive fighting has continued in this area, where Russia initiated a major offensive effort in mid-October 2023. It is estimated that Russia has committed elements of up to eight brigades to this sector, resulting in high casualty rates for the Russian forces. Russian nationalist ‘mil bloggers’ have expressed harsh criticism of the military’s tactics in the operation. This highlights the ongoing challenge faced by Russia, where political leaders demand more territory to be seized, but the military is unable to generate effective offensive action at the operational level.
There have been rumors circulating among hard-war milbloggers that Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky has replaced Colonel General Oleg Makarevich in command of the Russian “Dnepr” Group of Forces operating near Kherson. However, the Ministry of Defense has not confirmed this change, and it may be wishful thinking on the part of the milbloggers who have long criticized General Makarevich for what they perceive as his poor management of the Group of Forces. They attribute the recent Ukrainian successes to Makarevich’s negligence.
It has been observed that some Wagner Group alumni, who have reportedly signed new contracts with the Ministry of Defense, are now fighting under Ministry of Defense control in the Avdiivka zone alongside Donetsk People’s Republic units in the Russian-occupied territory. Additionally, Rosgvardia, Russia’s internal security force, which operates independently of the Ministry of Defense, has been actively seeking to recruit former Wagnerites for its own armed service.
The UK’s MoD has also reported on Redut’s efforts to recruit Russian women into combat formations operating in Ukraine. Redut, a Russian state-backed private military company (PMC), is specifically attempting to recruit women for combat roles in Ukraine, including snipers and unmanned aerial vehicle operators. Previously, women serving in Ukraine were mainly deployed in medical support and food service roles. However, it remains unclear whether official Russian defense forces will follow suit and open more combat roles to women. During the current conflict, women have rarely taken frontline fighting roles within pro-Russian forces, although there was a tradition of female snipers and combat troops in Soviet forces during the Second World War.
In mid-October, Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science reportedly instructed universities to avoid open discussion of any “negative political, economic, and social trends” in Russia during academic activities. This move further restricts the information space in Russia, making it more difficult to openly discuss policy issues. This is likely part of a broader trend where Russian policy-making occurs within an echo-chamber of politically acceptable, pro-Kremlin perspectives. The Kremlin’s intention is presumed to be the suppression of negative perspectives on the ongoing “special military operation” leading up to President Vladimir Putin’s anticipated bid for re-election in March 2024.
Interethnic and interreligious tensions within Russia have also begun to manifest themselves in violence, particularly in the republic of Dagestan. Recent antisemitic outbreaks have occurred in this region, with the most significant demonstration involving the storming of an airliner that had arrived from Tel Aviv. At least twenty people were injured in this incident, which was sparked by a false rumor that Russian authorities planned to resettle large numbers of Israeli refugees in Dagestan. Currently, Moscow is leaving the matter in the hands of regional authorities. The ISW suggests that the head of the FSB, the Russian security agency, may be exploiting these “ethnoreligious tensions” in an attempt to regain favor with President Putin, especially since the FSB failed to provide accurate intelligence on the Ukraine situation.
On a different front, Ukrainian auxiliaries known as the IT Army have disrupted internet service in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory through Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks against three Russian ISPs (Miranda-media, Krimtelekom, and MirTelekom). These disruptions have been intermittent since Friday, with Crimea experiencing the longest outages. The IT Army is an acknowledged auxiliary service of the Ukrainian government, unlike the deniable front groups typically employed by Russia. This action showcases Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russian occupation and regain control over its territory. Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov reported the DDoS attacks against the Russian ISPs on October 27, underscoring Ukraine’s commitment to defending its interests in the digital sphere.