Russian shelling continues to take a heavy toll on towns in Ukraine, resulting in the loss of more civilian lives. As the winter approaches, Ukraine is bracing itself for further attacks on its infrastructure, according to a report by the Guardian.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has stated that Russia has likely lost at least four long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) launchers to Ukrainian strikes in the past week. The report highlights that Russia’s Integrated Air Defence System is struggling against modern precision strike weapons. These losses will put additional strain on the remaining systems and operators, potentially weakening Russia’s air defences in other operational areas.
The war in Ukraine has reached a “positional” phase, as described by General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that General Zaluzhnyi sees air superiority, mine breaching, artillery counterbattery fire, building up reserves, and increasing electronic warfare capability as the keys to victory. However, achieving operational and tactical surprise has become exceedingly difficult due to the superiority of intelligence, particularly Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).
On the other side, Russian Chief of Staff and theater commander General Gerasimov seems determined to continue frontal assaults against Avdiivka, this time with infantry support. This decision may be driven by the heavy losses Russia suffered in combat and tactical vehicles during October’s fighting. The ISW contrasts the approaches of the opposing commanders, with General Zaluzhnyi demonstrating a willingness to learn and adapt, while General Gerasimov repeats costly failed tactics.
In addition to the ongoing conflict, there is evidence of cyber activities by Turla, a threat group operated by Russia’s FSB. Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42 has observed Turla using an advanced and stealthy .NET backdoor called “Kazuar” to target the Ukrainian defense sector. This backdoor gains access to sensitive information and uses legitimate websites for command-and-control, making it resistant to takedowns.
Meanwhile, hacktivist group “Cyber Resistance” continues to dox Russian officers. Their latest target is an air force lieutenant colonel responsible for aircraft maintenance. While the released files may not yield significant intelligence, the act of doxing remains embarrassing for the officers involved. However, questions arise about the efficacy and consequences of such activities.
In a lighter vein, the doxed lieutenant colonel’s insurance documents reveal that he drives a Kia Sportage. This may raise eyebrows, as a patriot would be expected to drive a Lada Granta instead.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, it is clear that both sides are employing various tactics to gain an advantage. The loss of SAM launchers poses a significant blow to Russia’s air defences, while the Ukrainian forces focus on achieving air superiority and implementing new strategies. Additionally, the use of cyber operations and hacktivist activities further complicates the already complex situation. As the winter draws near, the situation remains tense, with Ukraine anticipating further attacks on its infrastructure. The war shows no signs of abating, and the impact on civilian lives continues to be devastating.