Russian missiles struck Lviv this morning, causing damage to residences and resulting in the deaths of four civilians. The fighting on the ground continues between Ukrainian and Russian forces, with the Ukrainians focusing on attrition of the Russian forces and holding ground.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence’s situation report, Russian troop deployments are dislocated. Military formations from various regions across Russia are currently facing Ukraine’s counter-offensive. The 58th Combined Arms Army is defending heavily entrenched lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which is typically responsible for securing Russia’s volatile Caucasus region. The 5th Combined Arms Army and Naval Infantry are holding the front around Velyka Novosilka, even though their usual base is 7000km away. The defence in Bakhmut is now mostly comprised of airborne regiments from western Russia, who are normally stationed there as an elite rapid reaction force against NATO. The report suggests that Russia’s national strategy has been severely disrupted by the ongoing war.
Accusations and counter-accusations have emerged between Russia and Ukraine regarding plans to sabotage the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Both sides claim that the other intends to cause a radiological incident similar in scale to the Chernobyl disaster. Russian occupation troops currently control the power plant, but Ukrainian staff remain to ensure its operation. For safety reasons, the plant’s reactors have been shut down, but the risk of contamination remains if an explosion were to occur. Ukrainian sources have warned that Russian troop withdrawals near the power plant could be a sign of a staged incident. Russian officials have downplayed the potential effects of such an incident, claiming that their troops are trained and equipped to operate in a contaminated environment. However, few observers believe this to be true.
Leonid Slutsky, leader of the LDPR party and chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, suggests that Ukraine may be planning a provocative attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. He believes that Ukrainian President Zelensky intends to use a nuclear terrorist attack to blame Russia and force Western involvement in the conflict. The Russian Foreign Ministry echoes this sentiment and vows to protect the power plant from any Ukrainian attacks. They call on the UN and IAEA to acknowledge the threats posed to the security and functioning of the facility.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner Group, is facing ambivalence from the Russian government following the group’s march on Moscow. The city of Rostov-on-Don, which was briefly occupied by the mutineers, assesses the damage caused during the occupation at 92.5 million rubles, but this will be written off. As part of an agreement brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenka, the Russian government will return over 10 billion rubles in assets seized from Prigozhin after his brief rebellion. Mr. Prigozhin has been shuttling between Russia and Belarus, allegedly to collect weapons seized from his forces during the mutiny. His current location is unclear, with initial reports suggesting he had fled to Belarus, but President Lukashenka claims he is in Russia.
Hacktivist groups continue to play a role in the war. Ukrainian hacktivists have targeted Russian rail traffic, causing disruptions to the RZD’s website and mobile app. The Ukrainian IT Army claims responsibility for the cyberattack and states that it aims to interfere with Russian operations. Belarusian dissidents have also been active, with the Belarusian Cyber-Partisans claiming to have intruded into the systems of the Belarusian State University. The university denies being attacked, attributing its problems to technical issues. Pro-Russian hacktivist group NoName057(16)’s DDoSia project has targeted Ukraine and its supporters in the West, as well as the Russian Wagner Group. The impact of the Wagner Group’s decline is expected to result in more active and coordinated Russian cyber operations.
The situation in Ukraine remains tense as fighting continues on the ground and both sides accuse each other of nefarious plans. The potential for a radiological incident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant adds another layer of complexity and concern to the conflict. The involvement of hacktivist groups further complicates the situation and adds another dimension to the ongoing cyber battles between Russia and Ukraine. As the war unfolds, the international community watches with apprehension, hoping for a resolution to the conflict that minimizes further loss of life and stability in the region.