Russia’s continued waves of drone strikes on Ukrainian cities have intensified, with noncombatants rather than military installations being targeted. Despite Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which has been deliberately paced, progress has been made. Russian forces have reportedly been using antiquated armoured vehicles filled with explosives as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), a tactic that may have been pioneered by Chechen units. The use of VBIEDs has caused large explosions and psychological effects on defending forces, although many have been destroyed before reaching their target.
In a bid for a protected and controllable sector of cyberspace, Russia is pursuing a “sovereign Internet.” However, this program has faced difficulties, resulting in widespread outages among Russian websites. The sovereign Internet aims to give the government greater control over external connections and the ability to monitor domestic traffic and content. It also seeks to provide domestic alternatives to hardware and software sourced from foreign countries.
Russia has responded to Ukraine’s counteroffensive with a surge in cyberattacks, with the GRU playing a prominent role. The GRU’s cyber operations have been characterized by a five-phase approach, including leveraging compromised infrastructure, using built-in tools for reconnaissance, deploying persistent access via group policy objects, disrupting with wipers and ransomware, and amplifying the narrative of successful disruption. This systematic approach has rendered cyber operations a practical combat support capability for Russia.
A cyberattack against Russian satellite communications provider Dozor-Teleport ZAO on June 29th was claimed by a member of the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization. However, there are signs that Ukrainian hackers may have been involved in the attack. The timing of the attack and the subsequent wiper attack suggests it may have been a false-flag operation aimed at sowing doubt and mistrust in Russia.
Russia’s Defense Ministry has announced the disarmament of the Wagner Group, with troops turning in their weapons. The seizure of weapons and equipment is being spun as a debunking of Wagner Group leader Prigozhin’s claims of inadequate supply. Major General Ivan Popov, who had criticized the Ministry of Defense, was summarily relieved of his command. Popov’s complaints about the lack of counter-battery combat and the deaths and injuries of Russian troops from enemy artillery mirror Wagner Group leader Prigozhin’s denunciations.
The Kremlin’s effort to weed out officers suspected of disloyalty extends beyond public knowledge, with at least 13 senior officers detained for questioning and around 15 others suspended or fired. Colonel General Surovikin is currently resting, according to Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee. The hacktivist auxiliary group KillNet has been discussing the mutiny, with the consensus being that it was organized by the government to facilitate the rotation of out-of-favor senior officers. General Popov, who was relieved of his command, is seen as a hero by this group.
In conclusion, Russia’s drone strikes, use of VBIEDs, pursuit of a sovereign Internet, offensive cyber tactics, and internal purges show the complexity and ongoing nature of the conflict with Ukraine. As both sides continue to engage in warfare through various means, the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.