The tactical situation in Verbove, a region in western Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, remains uncertain as Ukrainian forces continue their offensive operations, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). On September 26, ISW reported that there are indications of deliberate Ukrainian advancements, but the exact extent of these advances is still unclear.
The ISW also highlighted signs of interethnic tensions within the Russian army, with slogans such as “Russia is for the Russians” being circulated. However, it is challenging to determine the severity of these tensions or whether they represent a broader trend or isolated incidents within the Russian military. Similar occurrences are not uncommon in armies worldwide.
In addition, the ISW noted the expected reequipping of Russian airborne forces as regular motorized rifle formations. This change is a consequence of the airborne units being committed to long-term service in the front lines, essentially functioning as standard infantry and losing their status as an elite force with significant operational mobility.
Another significant development is the deployment of Russia’s newly organized 25th Combined Arms Army. The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed that elements of the 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) have been actively involved in the conflict since mid-September 2023. Specifically, units from the 25 CAA’s 67th Motor Rifle Division and 164th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade are reportedly fighting in a sector west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna, along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblasts border. This deployment represents Russia’s operational reserve, and its commitment to the front lines indicates a reduced likelihood of a major new offensive in the near future.
In terms of cyber warfare, the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine (SSSCIP) released its report on Russia’s cyber activities during the first half of 2023. The report highlights the FSB as the most active in conducting cyber attacks against Ukrainian networks, with its Gamaredon actor being particularly prolific. Hacktivist auxiliaries under Russian government direction have also been involved. However, the most successful and damaging Russian cyber actor has been the GRU, specifically through its Sandworm organization.
Despite facing significant cyber attacks, Ukraine has demonstrated resilience, and the anticipated devastating attacks on the country’s infrastructure have not materialized. As winter approaches, and with calls from Russian propagandists for increased suffering among Ukraine’s civilian population, Kyiv is refocusing its cyber defenses on protecting critical infrastructure, especially within the energy sector.
Presently, Moscow’s cyber activities seem more focused on gathering intelligence and exerting influence rather than causing physical disruptions. However, there are concerns about potential future cyber attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure. Russian campaigns employ a combination of advanced tactics and basic spray-and-pray approaches, as observed in their attempts to infiltrate Ukrainian law enforcement and investigative agencies.
As the conflict continues, the situation on the ground remains fluid, with both military and cyber activities shaping the broader dynamics between Ukraine and Russia. The actions and strategies of both sides will continue to evolve, requiring ongoing analysis and monitoring of the developments in the region.