The recent events surrounding the Wagner Group and its abortive march on Moscow have left many questioning the long-term effects and consequences. One thing is clear, however: the difficulties faced by Russian commanders in confronting Ukraine’s counteroffensive will only be exacerbated by the absence of the Wagner Group. This group, although brutal, was known for its effectiveness in the fight against Ukraine, making their departure a significant blow for Russia.
Unsurprisingly, Ukraine sees the departure of the mercenaries as an opportunity to gain an advantage. With the absence of the Wagner Group, Ukrainian forces may have an easier time advancing in their assaults, such as around Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. While the gains made by Ukraine may not be substantial in terms of area retaken, they still represent progress in their counteroffensive.
The incident has also raised concerns about the strength of President Putin’s authority. Many Western observers view it as a severe shock to his power, as evidenced by discussions in various news outlets. President Putin himself has compared the march on Moscow to the events of 1917, calling it a strike in the back of the country and the people. He has vowed retribution for those involved in the mutiny and betrayal of Russia.
The reasons behind Wagner Group boss Prigozhin’s decision to stand down and his subsequent retirement offer in Minsk remain unclear. Some believe that he deemed the mission impossible, while others speculate that he faced direct threats from Russian authorities against his family. Russian state media itself is “aghast” at President Putin’s decision to spare Prigozhin from execution, emphasizing the confusion surrounding the situation.
As tensions rose between the Wagner Group and the Ministry of Defense, Russian ISPs blocked Google News on Friday. This is not the first time that the service has been blocked in Russia, with previous instances occurring due to Google’s action against disinformation spread in support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian hacktivists have taken to hacking into Russian radio broadcasts, inserting pro-Ukrainian messages. These messages, although uncoordinated and chaotic, have gained attention and even prompted a denial from a Kremlin spokesman. However, some analysts believe that the style and substance of these hacks may not be effective in changing public opinion and could instead lead to short-term consolidation around the authorities.
In addition, the European Union has enacted new sanctions directed at Russian IT firms. These sanctions specifically target companies with licenses from the FSB authorizing them to work at the Russian security level of “state secret” and those holding weapons and military equipment licenses from Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade. The European Council has deemed information warfare as a key means by which Russia implements its war of aggression against Ukraine, leading to these targeted sanctions.
Overall, the events surrounding the Wagner Group and its failed march on Moscow have raised significant questions and concerns. The departure of the mercenaries has impacted Russia’s fight against Ukraine, while also casting a shadow over President Putin’s authority. The actions and reactions of both sides will have far-reaching consequences, the full extent of which is yet to be seen.