Encryption & Key Management,
Next-Generation Technologies & Secure Development,
Security Operations
French Startup Estimates RSA-2048 Could Fall in Three Days With 23,000 Qubits
A recent announcement from the French quantum computing firm Alice & Bob has sent waves through the cybersecurity community. The startup, which operates from both Paris and Boston, claims it can break the widely-used RSA-2048 internet encryption in a mere three days and blockchain cryptography in just one hour, utilizing significantly fewer quantum resources than previous estimates suggested.
The company estimates that it could achieve this cryptographic feat using fewer than 23,000 physical qubits, in stark contrast to Google Quantum AI’s prediction from 2025, which suggested that around 1 million qubits would be needed. This groundbreaking prediction signifies a notable evolution in quantum computing capabilities, marking an unprecedented reduction in the resources required for such computation.
At the heart of Alice & Bob’s architecture is an innovative type of qubit known as a ‘cat qubit.’ This qubit is engineered to be error-resistant, allowing for a reduction in the overall number of physical qubits necessary to construct logical qubits. Logical qubits are crucial as they can correct errors that occur during complex computations, a vital feature in any quantum computing environment.
Théau Peronnin, CEO of Alice & Bob, expressed the transformative nature of this advancement: “Estimates of the resources needed to run Shor’s algorithm have been steadily falling as the field has developed better approaches to error correction and algorithm design. This latest estimate doesn’t just push the frontier; it fundamentally alters the paradigm.” His statement underscores the rapid pace at which quantum research is evolving, illustrating a significant shift in the understanding of what is possible with current technology.
Developers and researchers in quantum computing have been engaged in a relentless race to construct the first operationally relevant quantum computer capable of cracking cryptographic schemes without taking an impractical amount of time or resources. Various methods are being explored, from using trapped ions to neutral atoms and silicon spin qubits, each competing to strike a delicate balance between the number of qubits required to correct errors and the necessary time to execute calculations.
As history indicates, Shor’s algorithm has stood as a benchmark for the quantum computing community, representing a clearly defined mathematical problem along with a distinct quantum advantage. However, it is a challenge that researchers continuously pursue, striving to find innovative solutions.
The significance of Alice & Bob’s findings rest in a historical context. As recently as 2019, estimates from Google Quantum AI indicated that factoring a 2048-bit RSA integer could require up to 20 million noisy physical qubits over an extended period of eight hours. A mere six years later, that estimate significantly dropped to fewer than a million qubits required within a week. Now, Alice & Bob has made further advancements, reducing the necessary qubit count for breaking RSA-2048 from a staggering 350,000 in 2023 to just 23,000 today.
Furthermore, the startup’s projections for elliptic-curve cryptography—an encryption method often deployed to safeguard blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum—are equally astonishing. Alice & Bob estimates that this form of cryptography might be broken using 30,000 qubits, achievable in the span of an hour.
The success of this advancement can be attributed to various factors, including the employment of cat qubits that reduce hardware-level errors, the implementation of more efficient error-correcting codes, and a more stable version of Shor’s algorithm tailored specifically for the nuances of cat qubits. According to Peronnin, the architecture developed by Alice & Bob sets a new standard: “To our knowledge, no published architecture is smaller at this runtime, which places us at the frontier of size and speed.” This assertion positions Alice & Bob as frontrunners in the quest to achieve mainstream quantum computing capabilities.
The company’s achievements have not gone unnoticed, with industry experts weighing in on the implications of such progress. Anders Indset, host of the Quantum Economy podcast and esteemed author, highlighted Alice & Bob’s methodology as a “contrarian bet.” By prioritizing the quality of qubits over sheer quantity, the company aims to “fix the qubit first and scale second,” which could represent a valuable approach in the future of quantum technology.
Nevertheless, there remain critical caveats regarding these advancements. Indset emphasized that while the initial findings are encouraging, peer review is essential to ascertain the practicality of these cat qubits in real-world operations. The need for further validation manifests a necessary prudence before fully banking on the breakthrough.
The ever-accelerating advancements in quantum computing pose significant challenges to current encryption systems. As Indset further noted, the critical issue is not merely the anticipation of a singular “Q-Day” when quantum computers could decimate encryption. Instead, the looming threat involves the potential for data to be harvested today and decrypted later, posing far-reaching security implications for sensitive information—be it medical records, state secrets, or intellectual property that requires confidentiality for extended periods.
Also at risk are cryptocurrencies, particularly dormant assets like P2PK Bitcoin, which could be vulnerable to the capabilities of Alice & Bob’s fast-acting algorithm. Doug Finke, Chief Content Officer at Global Quantum Intelligence, specified that such static assets—often found in wallets that have not transacted in years—could easily be compromised given their lack of movement and lack of timely protections afforded to active transactions.
In light of these findings, experts implore organizations to begin implementing quantum-safe measures into their IT infrastructures as a preemptive response to the impending challenges posed by advancing quantum technologies. The pace of innovation, illustrated by efforts from institutions like Google and emerging challengers such as Oratomic, indicates that asymmetric encryption could soon face destabilization.
“In an unprepared environment, the financial repercussions could be substantial,” cautioned Finke. As the realm of cybersecurity navigates these uncharted waters, it becomes increasingly essential for stakeholders to prioritize security measures that consider the looming realities of quantum computing.