The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report yesterday detailing further advances made by Ukraine in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts. The Ukrainian forces have gained significant ground in areas such as southwest of Bakhmut, south of Robotyne, and west of Verbove. These advancements are part of a deliberate and strategic approach taken by Ukraine.
In addition to these territorial gains, Ukraine also announced that it had retaken oil and gas platforms in the Black Sea that were previously occupied by Russia during its 2014 invasion of Crimea. This is a significant development as it represents Ukraine’s efforts to regain control over its own resources and assert its sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Russia has been taking steps to enhance its air defenses around Moscow, particularly against the threat of drones. The UK’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia has reorganized and repositioned its short and medium-range air defense systems to better defend against UAV attacks. This includes the positioning of SA-22 air defense systems on elevated towers and ramps, as well as on the roofs of official buildings in Moscow. These measures not only aim to detect and engage UAV-type targets but also serve as a show of force to reassure the public that the authorities have the threat under control.
However, Russia is also facing challenges with regards to force generation. The ISW reports that the Russian military force responsible for internal security, known as the Rosgvardia, is recruiting imprisoned former Wagner fighters to fill its ranks. This indicates a shortage of available personnel and highlights the discontent among other military formations, including the FSB’s border guards and army regulars, who complain of inadequate support, particularly in terms of ammunition and heavy combat vehicles.
To address the ammunition supply shortfall, Russia is reportedly seeking to secure artillery ammunition from North Korea. President Putin and Chairman Kim are scheduled to meet in Vladivostok to discuss this matter. The Washington Post reported that Russia’s excessive expenditure of shells in the war with Ukraine has revealed its need for a large quantity of inexpensive weaponry. This reliance on North Korea as a donor, rather than a supplicant, highlights Russia’s industrial inadequacy and dependence on a pariah state for assistance. The US has warned both countries that any transfer of arms from North Korea to Russia would be in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions.
In another development, Anonymous Sudan, a Russian-operated hacktivist group, launched a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack against the Telegraph after the suspension of their main account. However, the attack was largely unsuccessful. Telegram, the platform on which Anonymous Sudan operates, has not disclosed the reason for the suspension but it is believed to be related to the group’s organization and use of bot accounts.
Furthermore, Starlink’s limitation of Ukrainian access to its services in the past has prompted the US Department of Defense to reflect on its use of commercial services, particularly commercial satellite services. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall emphasized the importance of making contracts explicit, especially when relying on commercial systems for operational purposes. This lesson learned from the Starlink incident underscores the need for assurances that services will be available during wartime.
In conclusion, Ukraine continues to make strategic advances in its conflict with Russia, reclaiming territory and asserting its sovereignty over key resources. Russia faces challenges in force generation and relies on recruiting imprisoned fighters and securing ammunition from North Korea. The activities of hacktivist groups and the limitations of commercial services also pose additional concerns for both sides. The conflict remains complex and dynamic, with implications for regional security and international relations.