Ukrainian forces have reportedly made “tactically significant” advances along the border between the Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, potentially opening up the avenue to the occupied cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have established a presence on the east bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson Oblast, although caution is exercised in calling it a “bridgehead.” The presence of mines remains a major obstacle to further advances by Ukrainian forces.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) provided a more detailed situation report, stating that there has been an increase in small-scale combat along the banks of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces have been working to raid or establish small bridgeheads on the Russian-held east bank of the river. The report suggests that these operations took advantage of a rotation of local Russian forces. Skirmishes for control of small islands in the Dnipro estuary also continue. This poses a dilemma for Russian commanders, as they must decide whether to strengthen this area or deploy troops to Ukraine’s main counter-offensive operations farther east.
Russian forces have redeployed to maintain combat power along the line of contact, according to the British MoD. Airborne forces from the Kherson region are believed to have been redeployed to the heavily contested Orikiv sector in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The 58th Combined Arms Army, which has been in combat since June 2023, has faced intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line. The arrival of the airborne forces may allow elements of these regiments to be pulled out for rest and recovery. However, their redeployment may weaken Russia’s defenses near the east bank of the Dnipro River, where they are increasingly targeted by Ukrainian amphibious raids.
In a provocative move, Ukraine fired at least two, possibly three, missiles at the Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Crimea to mainland Russia. Russian forces claim to have shot down all three missiles, protecting the bridge from damage. However, video footage shows smoke rising from the bridge, with Russian sources claiming that it is a smoke screen to obscure the bridge and prevent further attacks. The effectiveness of a smoke screen against radar-guided missiles is uncertain.
Russian forces also claimed to have intercepted twenty Ukrainian missiles fired at targets in occupied Crimea. Meanwhile, Russia continued to indiscriminately shell villages near Kherson, resulting in the death of seven civilians and the injury of at least twenty-two others.
The Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor, is reportedly facing financial pressure. The UK’s MoD suggests that the Wagner Group is downsizing and reconfiguring to save on staff salary expenses. The Russian state, which previously funded the group, has taken action against other business interests of the group’s owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin. It is speculated that the Kremlin may no longer support the group financially, leaving them without a reliable source of funding.
Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) claims that Russia’s GRU is attempting to deploy malware against the Starlink satellite communications system. The goal is to collect data on Ukrainian troop movements, according to the SBU. The Telegraph reports this development, highlighting the ongoing cyber warfare tactics employed by both sides.
Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development has banned the use of Apple mobile devices by its workers for work purposes. The ban is believed to be in response to a June report by the FSB, which claimed that Apple devices had been compromised by the US National Security Agency (NSA) with the alleged cooperation of Apple. Apple has denied both the compromise and its alleged cooperation. The partial ban on iOS devices as a response to a perceived security risk raises questions about its effectiveness.
In another blow to Russia, Microsoft has announced that it will not renew licenses for its products in Russia after September 30th. This decision comes as a result of Microsoft halting sales to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Existing licenses will continue until their expiration dates.