The Ukrainian breakthrough near Zaporizhzhia, penetrating Russia’s first line of defense, continues to make headlines. The New York Times reports that this breakthrough is being achieved through a village-by-village campaign conducted by small assault units.
In an interview with the Observer, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy stated, “We are now between the first and second defensive lines. In the center of the offensive, we are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line.” Ukrainian forces are expanding their breakthrough, with the second and third prepared defensive lines being assessed as less well-prepared and formidable compared to the breached first line.
This Ukrainian advancement has significant implications for the Russian forces. They can no longer rely on a static, positional defense behind obstacles, which has been their preferred strategy since their failed offensive to knock Ukraine out of the war. The Russian army now has to maneuver, something they have shown little aptitude for during the special military operation. General Tarnavskiy stated, “The enemy is pulling up reserves, not only from Ukraine but also from Russia. But sooner or later, the Russians will run out of all the best soldiers. This will give us an impetus to attack more and faster. Everything is ahead of us.”
Russian sources have corroborated Ukrainian claims of an advance toward Melitopol. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian milbloggers, who previously claimed Russian forces held positions in the southern part of Robotyne, have acknowledged their withdrawal to unspecified positions further south. Ukrainian artillery continues to succeed in counterfire and interdiction roles, particularly in the southern zone. Russian fires in that sector have seen minimal results, although they appear to be more effective in the north, around Kharkiv.
Internal disagreements in Russia have also come to light. The ISW reported two instances of discord, one in the military and one from the academic community. Within the military, there are signs of morale and command problems. Russian officers from the 58th Combined Arms Army reportedly contacted former commander Major General Ivan Popov instead of their new commander due to the worsening situation at the frontline. General Popov had previously been relieved of command when he tried to bypass the Russian General Staff and bring his complaints directly to President Vladimir Putin. This suggests a lack of trust in the new commander.
On the academic side, the Director of the Institute for the Study of the USA and Canada, Valery Garbuzov, criticized the “utopian myths” propagated by Russian ruling elites about impending Russian hegemony, a crisis of capitalism, and Russia’s leadership of a global anti-Western coalition. The ultras, a group of hard-war supporters, protested Garbuzov’s essay. They believe that Telegram, a social media platform, is fulfilling the role that academics should have taken up.
In terms of recruitment, Russia has been targeting neighboring countries to bolster its forces. The UK’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia has been appealing to citizens of Armenia and Kazakhstan with recruitment adverts offering initial payments and salaries. There have also been recruitment efforts in Kazakhstan’s Qostanai region, targeting the Russian ethnic population. Additionally, Russia has approached central Asian migrants, promising fast-track citizenship and higher salaries, in an attempt to avoid unpopular domestic mobilization measures. Exploiting foreign nationals allows Russia to acquire additional personnel for its war effort amidst increasing casualties.
In a show of international support, ten nations have joined the UK-led program to train Ukrainian soldiers. The participating countries include Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden. This multinational training program aims to enhance the capabilities of Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian breakthrough near Zaporizhzhia remains a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. As Ukrainian forces continue to advance, the Russian army is faced with the challenge of adapting to a new style of warfare. Internal disagreements and recruitment efforts further highlight the complexities of the situation. The international community’s support through the multinational training program demonstrates solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for stability and security.