The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, with Ukraine claiming significant gains in retaking ground from Russian forces. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukrainian forces have been able to breach Russian defenses at multiple points, although the extent of their advance is still uncertain. Geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces may have even advanced further than previously assessed.
However, Russian President Putin has vehemently denied Ukraine’s claims and stated that all counter-offensive attempts have been stopped, with the enemy being pushed back and suffering heavy casualties. While the Russian leader insists on his military’s success, some experts and media outlets have described his claims as extravagant and unconfirmed. Russian mil-bloggers, who often align with Kremlin messaging, have expressed concern about Ukrainian forces advancing into strategic areas and the heavy engagement of Ukrainian rocket artillery.
As the conflict intensifies, the consequences are not limited to the battlefield. The UK’s Ministry of Defence warns that the disruption of Ukrainian grain shipments caused by the Russian blockade will result in at least two more years of hardship for Africa. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed the export of 30 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain to African countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan, has been severely affected. This disruption not only directly impacts food supplies but also causes grain prices to rise, compounding food insecurity across Africa for the foreseeable future.
In an attempt to mitigate the impact of the blockade, Russia has promised to provide free grain to six African nations: Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and Eritrea. This move is part of Russia’s broader strategy to strengthen ties with African countries and ensure their alignment with Russian interests. Russia already has a presence on the continent through the Wagner Group mercenaries, and by offering both food aid and military support, they aim to gain influence over African governments.
While the conflict unfolds, even weather forecasts are being given a militarized spin in Russia. Evgeny Tishkovets, a weatherman on Russian state television, has been incorporating tactical considerations into his forecasts. He predicts weather conditions that would increase the effectiveness of incendiary and thermobaric ammunition and the suitability of sea and wind conditions for missile strikes against Ukrainian targets. Although these predictions have no practical impact on military operations, they highlight the militarization of public discourse in Russia.
Additionally, cyberattacks are being used to support Russia’s influence operations. Anonymous Sudan, a front for Russian intelligence services, has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on Kenya’s eCitizen portal. The portal provides access to government services online, and while no data loss has been reported, the attack caused significant disruptions. The rationale offered by Anonymous Sudan for the campaign is Kenya’s alleged statement doubting the sovereignty of the Sudanese government. However, experts suggest that the real motive behind the attack is Kenya’s president opting out of attending the Russo-African summit due to concerns about taking sides in Russia’s war.
Overall, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is not only a matter of military advancement but also a complex web of influence operations, economic consequences, and cyberattacks. As Ukraine strives to regain control of its territory, the impact of the conflict reaches far beyond its borders, causing food insecurity in Africa, intensifying rhetoric in Russia, and sparking cyberattacks as part of a broader information warfare campaign. The situation remains fluid and unpredictable, and its implications reverberate across various aspects of global affairs.