The 2016 U.S. presidential election marked a turning point in the realm of digital disinformation campaigns, highlighting vulnerabilities in democratic processes to foreign interference and the dissemination of false information. Since then, elections worldwide have increasingly become targets for sophisticated influence operations and disinformation campaigns.
In the past year, nation-state actors have actively engaged in efforts to sway voter opinions and outcomes. Disinformation is not merely about spreading falsehoods; it is also about generating doubt, undermining trust, and dividing societies through algorithmically precise manipulation of narratives. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) has notably amplified these efforts, enabling campaigns to efficiently spread false information. Countries such as China, Russia, and Iran have adapted their strategies to exploit societal divisions in the United States, utilizing AI-enhanced tools to disseminate their messaging across a wide audience, often leveraging social media platforms.
Moving forward, disinformation campaigns are expected to continue exerting influence not only during the election process but also in the post-election period, particularly as preparations are made for the inauguration of President Donald Trump. With this in mind, let’s delve into the various disinformation campaigns that unfolded in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election and explore how these campaigns might evolve in the crucial months ahead.
China’s Spamouflage influence operation, which has been active since at least 2019 and is widely attributed to the Chinese government, has evolved its tactics to align with geopolitical objectives. Known as Dragonbridge or Storm-1376, the campaign shifted its focus to the U.S. presidential election in mid-2023. Researchers at Graphika uncovered the operation’s extensive use of social media accounts impersonating U.S. citizens, soldiers, and advocacy groups. These accounts strategically disseminated AI-generated content targeting both Democratic and Republican candidates, seeking to undermine the electoral process and exacerbate social tensions on various timely issues. The campaign targeted prominent political figures like Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and Marco Rubio, with the latter being a consistent target since his re-election bid in 2022. Microsoft also observed Spamouflage using AI-generated news broadcasts and manipulated imagery to fuel conspiracy theories, often spreading them across platforms like Medium, X, and TikTok.
Iran’s hack-and-leak tactics made headlines in May 2024 when Iranian-linked cyber actors breached the personal accounts of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, obtaining non-public documents and emails. By June 2024, these hackers escalated their operation, employing a ‘hack-and-leak’ strategy using the persona ‘Robert’ to disseminate stolen materials to media outlets and individuals associated with the Biden campaign. The U.S. Department of Justice responded in September 2024 by indicting three Iranian nationals working for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), alleging a coordinated effort to undermine U.S. electoral processes by sowing discord and gathering intelligence.
Russia’s Doppelganger campaign, which originated in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, adapted its strategies to target global elections in 2024. Utilizing a variety of disinformation techniques, including typosquatted domains and deep fake videos, the campaign aimed to spread narratives while amplifying messages from other Russia-linked operations like CopyCop. Despite U.S. Department of Justice efforts to seize internet domains linked to the campaign, Doppelganger persisted, attempting to discredit disinformation experts to deflect accusations of Russian involvement.
State-sponsored influence campaigns continue to evolve, leveraging AI as a crucial tool in disinformation strategies. The use of AI-generated social media content is expected to persist, with campaigns targeting political figures through deepfake videos and AI-generated narratives. These operations remain agile, exploiting current events to spread divisive messaging. Additionally, cybersecurity risks like phishing attacks are heightened as disinformation campaigns can serve as vectors for malware dissemination, posing broad implications for companies and financial markets.
To combat these threats, organizations must employ robust threat intelligence to anticipate and mitigate the repercussions of disinformation campaigns. By understanding the broader landscape, businesses can effectively navigate emerging risks. The 2024 U.S. presidential election underscored the multifaceted impacts of disinformation in an era defined by AI and global connectivity, highlighting threats to public trust, political stability, corporate security, and global markets.
Hannah Baumgaertner, Head of Research at Silobreaker, contributed to this analysis. For more information, visit Silobreaker’s website at www.silobreaker.com.