In a surprising turn of events, the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has turned against the Russian Ministry of Defense and possibly the entire regime in Moscow. This development, which unfolded in the early hours of June 24, 2023, has escalated into a full-fledged military confrontation between Prigozhin’s forces and Russian security forces.
Prigozhin described the operation as a “march for freedom,” as Wagner Group forces crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia at multiple locations. It is believed that they have occupied key security sites in Rostov-on-Don, including the headquarters responsible for military operations in Ukraine. Additionally, other Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, with Moscow likely being their ultimate target. However, there has been limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, suggesting that some Russian forces may have remained passive or even acquiesced to Wagner’s advances.
The loyalty of Russia’s security forces, particularly the Russian National Guard, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this crisis. This situation represents the biggest challenge to the Russian state in recent times and has raised concerns about the stability of the regime.
The Ukrainian government responded to reports of the Wagnerite insurrection by highlighting Russia’s inherent weakness. President Zelenskyy stated that the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on Ukrainian land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will face in the future. Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, described the internal confrontation within Russia as a sign of the collapse of the Putin regime.
The incident that sparked Prigozhin’s decision to rebel against the Russian Ministry of Defense is believed to be a missile strike by the Russian army on a Wagner Group unit. The nature of the strike remains unclear, whether it was deliberate, friendly fire, or if it occurred at all. Prigozhin described it as an atrocity that needed to be addressed. Russia’s Ministry of Defense has labeled the Wagner Group’s public statements as disinformation, and they have formally charged Prigozhin with “calling for armed mutiny.”
The Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, accusing him of calling for an armed rebellion. They have also urged the Wagnerites to think twice before following their now-suspect leader, emphasizing that Prigozhin’s actions constitute calls for civil conflict and betrayal against the Russian people.
President Putin addressed the nation in response to the escalating crisis, characterizing any internal mutiny as a death threat to the Russian state and nation. He promised defeat and retribution for those involved in the rebellion, stating that they would suffer inevitable punishment and answer to the law and the people. Putin’s address was seen as a rallying call for national unity to combat the external and internal enemies that seek to tear Russia apart.
Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev also emphasized the need for national unity, highlighting that betraying the country and splitting the nation would lead to a great tragedy. He reassured the public that the enemy would be crushed and victory would be achieved.
Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has presented their new mission and objectives, describing their actions as a “March for Justice.” According to them, they were hit with artillery and helicopters but managed to reach Rostov without firing a single round or causing harm to any conscript. They claim to have captured the headquarters in Rostov without interfering with the work of the individuals there.
There are signs of growing resentment among other frontline fighters against the rear echelon. Storm-Z, another private military corporation established as a competitor to the Wagner Group, is showing sympathy towards Wagner. Storm-Z fighters, many of whom are convicts released to join the PMC, express their willingness to join Prigozhin’s fight against what they perceive as rats in the rear.
In response to the situation in Russia, the European Union has activated its crisis center. This development highlights the international concern over the escalating crisis and its potential ramifications. The EU’s senior diplomat, Josep Borrell, held a call with G7 Foreign Ministers to exchange views on the situation, suggesting that the international community is closely monitoring the events unfolding in Russia.
As this crisis continues to unfold, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, the resolve of the Wagner Group, and the response from the international community will ultimately shape the outcome. The implications of this conflict reach far beyond the immediate confrontation, and its resolution will have significant repercussions for Russia’s government and its position on the global stage.