Ukrainian forces continued to make progress along the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia, with the Azov coast as their operational objective. However, a shortage of operational reserves may be rendering Russian defensive lines fragile, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Russian authorities in occupied Crimea are increasing penalties and tightening enforcement of laws to prevent citizens from providing combat information to Ukrainian forces. In addition, Russian missile strikes against cities and towns, particularly in Odesa and its environs, have not stopped.
A shift in Russian targeting has been observed, with accommodations used by journalists and aid workers now becoming programs in missile strikes. The strikes have also extended to targets in western Ukraine, with Lviv being hit particularly hard, resulting in civilian casualties. Odesa remains a target as well, with drones hitting a residential building, a supermarket, and a dormitory of an educational facility, according to local authorities.
As Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues to make incremental advances, speculation in the West has arisen that the decisive battle may be fought next spring.
One aspect of Russia’s war in Ukraine involves the Chechen Vostok Akhmat Battalion, a semi-regular formation serving with the Russian Army. The UK’s Ministry of Defence takes note of the battalion’s role in the heavily contested Orhikiv sector, highlighting the unit’s contribution as a key component of Russian forces in Ukraine. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov likely heavily promotes his units’ roles to demonstrate his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The war in Ukraine has also taken a toll on Russia’s economy, with the ruble falling to its lowest level since the onset of the conflict. Financial anxiety has grown since the Wagnerite mutiny, along with fissures in Kremlin leadership. The central bank’s attempts to raise interest rates to control inflation have been seen as inadequate by circles around Putin. It remains uncertain whether the latest rate hike will be able to curb wartime inflation or reverse the decline of the ruble against foreign currencies.
Researchers have gained new insights into the Russian hacktivist auxiliary group NoName057(16). Infiltrating the group, they discovered that NoName is now more active than other Russian hacktivist auxiliaries. NoName runs a platform called “DDoSia,” which enables crowdsourced distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against targets in Ukraine and countries supporting Ukraine. The research shows that NoName conducted over a thousand DDoS attacks in the first half of 2023, hitting thirty-two different nations within one-hundred-seventy-six days. Motivations of participants in DDoSia range from Russian patriotic zeal to the promise of payment, although the actual payout amounts are uncertain. The payment system is also susceptible to manipulation, allowing participants to receive cryptocurrency they are not entitled to.
NoName’s attacks have primarily been nuisance-level attacks on vulnerable targets of opportunity. However, there are signs that the group is evolving, targeting higher-value critical infrastructure sectors. It is expected that NoName and other hacktivist auxiliaries will continue to pose a threat even after Russia’s war ends.
The impact of Russian cyber warfare during the invasion of Ukraine has been different from what many expected. Mieke Eoyang, the US deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy, addressed this disconnect during a presentation at DefCon. She argued that while the cyber threat is real, it is not decisive in the way popular imagination portrays it. Cyber operations are more akin to espionage, reconnaissance, surveillance, and electronic warfare rather than massive kinetic strikes. Designing a cyberattack requires time, preparation, understanding, engineering, and coding, which is often overlooked by policymakers seeking a quick cyber option.
In conclusion, as the conflict in Ukraine continues, Ukrainian forces are making progress, and Russian defensive lines are becoming increasingly brittle. Russian missile strikes and targeting have shifted, causing casualties among civilians. The war has also had an impact on Russia’s economy and its currency. NoName057(16), a Russian hacktivist auxiliary, has become more active in conducting DDoS attacks, posing a persistent threat. And while cyber warfare plays a role in the conflict, its impact is not as decisive as initially anticipated.