Ukrainian forces appear to have made significant progress in their offensive against Russian-held territory, as they have reportedly penetrated the main Russian defensive lines. Troops from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade were located on the western outskirts of the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating that they had pushed through the ‘Surovikin line’, a network of mines, barriers, and trenches erected by the Russian invasion commander to impede Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
The advance by Ukrainian forces has been captured in video footage shared by Russian mil-bloggers. However, the footage does not necessarily confirm that Ukrainian forces have taken control of the area at this time, according to the Institute for the Study of War. It is seen as a setback for Russian forces but not yet a breakthrough for Ukraine.
Furthermore, Ukrainian drones have been increasingly deployed against targets within Russia itself. The UK’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia experienced up to five separate strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the night of August 29-30, marking the largest attack on Russia since the start of the conflict. The strikes targeted locations in Moscow, Bryansk, Ryazan, and Pskov airbase near the Estonian border. The effectiveness of these UAV attacks has raised concerns for Russian air defenses, as they have faced difficulties in detecting and destroying the drones. Russia may need to reconsider its air defense posture and potentially deploy additional defense systems to mitigate further UAV attacks.
Russian state television has strongly reacted to the Ukrainian drone strikes, with prominent figures calling for aggressive retaliation against Ukraine and its sympathizers. Vladimir Solovyov, for example, demanded the expulsion of Western diplomats and endorsed massive retaliatory strikes, including nuclear strikes, against Ukraine and its supporters.
The drones used by Ukraine in these attacks have reportedly been supplied by Australia and are made primarily of cardboard. Despite their small size, these drones carry sufficient payload to effectively target soft targets like combat aircraft. The cost-effectiveness of these inexpensive drones further adds to their effectiveness, as even if one is shot down by an air defense missile, the missile’s cost is significantly higher.
The recent attack on the Pskov airfield, which is about 500 miles from the Ukrainian border, has raised speculation that the strike may have been launched from within Russia. The exact point of departure of the drones has not been confirmed. Russian sources claim that two Ukrainian “saboteurs” were killed near Bryansk, suggesting that Ukrainian diversionary units may be operating deep within Russian territory.
The crash of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, on August 23rd, continues to be investigated by Russia. The official investigation, which has been widely criticized as a cover-up, is still ongoing. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that various possibilities are being considered, including a deliberate act of sabotage. However, most observers believe that the bombing was arranged by the Russian government to eliminate a powerful mercenary captain, Yegeny Prigozhin, who had become a threat. Prigozhin’s funeral did not receive extensive coverage, indicating a lack of recognition for his service.
Russian forces are actively seeking alternative sources of supply, as they are not relying on US weapons as they did during World War II. Recently, they have been looking to North Korea for arms, which has drawn protests from the US, UK, South Korea, and Japan. These countries argue that such deals would violate UN security council resolutions prohibiting arms trades with North Korea, resolutions that Russia itself supported. The concern is that Russia may negotiate deals for significant quantities of munitions from North Korea to be used against Ukraine, which would constitute a serious violation of the security council resolutions.
In a joint advisory, the intelligence services of the Five Eyes countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US) provided further details on the Infamous Chisel malware used in a GRU cyberespionage campaign previously described by Ukraine’s SBU. The malware primarily targets Android devices on behalf of Sandworm, a threat group associated with the GRU. The malware has low to medium sophistication and appears to have mainly targeted Ukrainian military devices.
Russian hacktivist auxiliary groups have also been active recently. NoName057 (16), which is associated with Russian intelligence services, has shifted its focus from operations against Poland to targeting the Czech Republic. The group has launched distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on several Czech banks and the Prague stock exchange. The attacks are intended to punish the victims for their support of Ukraine and to influence them to reconsider their stance. However, these attacks have posed no threat to the organizations’ data or their customers’ data, and full service has been quickly restored. Additionally, a hacktivist auxiliary known as Anonymous Sudan, which has links to Russian intelligence services, recently disrupted the social media platform X in multiple countries.