Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is reportedly scaling back its presence in Crimea, including the significant base at Sevastopol, due to its diminishing usefulness in operations. The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry has described Russia’s current situation in the Black Sea as a “functional defeat.”
In a move reminiscent of the Red Army under Stalin during World War II, Russia has initiated the deployment of punishment battalions known as “Storm-Z” units. These organizations consist of a combination of convicts released for this purpose and regular soldiers being disciplined for military offenses such as insubordination or indiscipline. Reports suggest that these units are kept in line by blocking forces behind them, authorized to use lethal force if necessary to prevent the withdrawal of the penal units. The Storm-Z units are deemed expendable and are typically used for high-risk operations. One regular Russian soldier, deployed near the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, referred to these units as “just meat,” highlighting the disregard for their well-being.
It appears that Russia is adopting a strategy of attacking without concern for casualties, where the determination to launch an attack takes precedence over the achieved results. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu commended Russian armed formations operating in the western Zaporizhia Oblast direction, demonstrating his support for relentless counterattacks. This operational style reflects an increasing trend within the Russian military.
Crimea, particularly the major base at Sevastopol, is reportedly losing its value as a strategic location for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The declining utility of the region is becoming a concern for the fleet’s operations.
The UK’s Ministry of Defense has released a situation report outlining the current status of Russian combat aviation and air defense. The report reveals that on September 28, 2023, Russian air defense forces accidentally shot down one of their own Su-35S FLANKER M multi-role combat jets over Tokmak, a fortified town located approximately 20km behind the current front line. This incident marks the fifth loss of a Su-35S, Russia’s most advanced combat jet in widespread service. The location of the incident is significant as Tokmak often serves as a headquarters for Russian forces in heavily contested sectors. These headquarters are typically protected by dedicated short and medium-range air defense systems, implying a disciplined response to Ukraine’s effective deep strikes.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has released guidelines for hacktivists to extend existing international norms of armed conflict to cyberspace. These guidelines aim to protect noncombatants from attacks on infrastructure and online incitement to atrocity. Notably, medical and humanitarian facilities are explicitly identified as prohibited targets. The ICRC was moved to issue these guidelines due to politically motivated hacktivism witnessed in various conflicts, including Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, the IT Army of Ukraine appears uncertain about complying with these rules, particularly regarding collateral damage, which is not always avoidable. While the group refrains from attacking hospitals and humanitarian facilities, they have conducted nuisance-level Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks on civilian infrastructure, such as banks and travel booking services. On the other side, hacktivist auxiliaries involved in the war, including Russia’s KillNet and Anonymous Sudan, reject the ICRC rules, dismissing their relevance and calling them unviable.
The European Peace Foundation has recently established a training center equipped with fifteen workstations to train Ukrainian military personnel in cyber operations. The classroom was set up by the Estonian Academy of Electronic Governance, which has been actively procuring, installing, and configuring cybersecurity equipment and software for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This initiative aims to enhance Ukraine’s cyber capabilities in the ongoing conflict.
As Russia’s Black Sea Fleet redeploys and Crimea loses its strategic value, the situation in the region remains highly volatile. Russia’s utilization of punishment battalions and its evolving operational style highlight the extent to which the country is willing to pursue military objectives without regard for casualties. Meanwhile, the guidelines issued by the ICRC prompt debates among hacktivist groups involved in the conflict, with some expressing concerns about collateral damage and others dismissing the relevance of international humanitarian norms. Finally, the establishment of a training center by the European Peace Foundation underscores the international community’s support for Ukraine’s cyber capabilities amidst the ongoing conflict.