Ukrainian forces are continuing their slow advance around Bakhmut and in the western Zaporizhia Oblast, with their operational objective being Melitopol. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the tempo of attempted Russian counterattacks in other sectors appears to be falling off, with most of them being diversionary and spoiling attacks.
In a recent development, Russia launched Iranian Shahed drones and targeted three cities in Ukraine – Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kirovohrad. However, Ukraine claimed to have successfully shot down 34 out of the 44 drones launched and reported that the damage on the ground was minor. On the Ukrainian side of the border, Russian officials in Kursk reported that a Ukrainian drone attack had hit an electrical power substation, resulting in power outages in several villages.
The Russian milbloggers, known for their firsthand accounts of the conflict, have revealed that they are self-censoring and only reporting a fraction of what they know. There is concern among these milbloggers that they might face legal repercussions under a newly passed law that punishes promoting and justifying “extremism.”
In a surprising turn of events, it is reported that individual fighters formerly associated with the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) have started redeploying to Ukraine as individuals and small groups. The UK’s Ministry of Defense stated that these fighters are now fighting for different pro-Russian units and have likely transferred to parts of the official Russian Ministry of Defense forces and other PMCs. There are reports suggesting a concentration of Wagner veterans around Bakhmut, as their experience is in demand in this sector.
According to Ukraine, the Wagner Group is back in action, with several hundred fighters from the group being spotted fighting in the ranks of different Russian military units on the eastern front. However, Colonel Serhiy Cherevatyi downplayed their return, stating that Wagner is no longer a powerful force and those who returned are not in a good fighting mood.
In another development, President Putin has engaged Andrei Troshev, the former chief of staff of the Wagner Group, to organize volunteer combat units. These units are likely to be sourced from Russia’s large prison system, where individuals without prospects or hope of a better life may see joining the military as a way out.
The US Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, published recently, highlights the influence operations conducted by Russia and China as an adjunct to their nuclear, biological, and chemical preparation and deterrence. Both Russia and China have employed disinformation campaigns to manipulate the information space and reinforce their preferred false narratives.
In conclusion, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to evolve, with Ukrainian forces making slow progress, Russian counterattacks decreasing, and the return of certain individuals associated with the Wagner Group. The use of drones and the ongoing influence operations add another layer of complexity to the conflict, creating a challenging situation for both sides.