Recent research has revealed that Ukraine’s drone strikes aimed at Yandex’s data centers did not effectively silence the Russian propaganda bots that were thought to have been affected. This finding challenges a widespread narrative surrounding the recent strikes against the Russian tech giant.

Disinformation researcher Renée DiResta conducted a thorough analysis of the situation, notably dismantling a viral theory that suggested a significant decline in the activity of Russian bots as a result of the drone strikes. DiResta pointed out that the traffic data cited in support of this theory was derived from Yandex’s own search indexing software, which did not reflect any actual reduction in activity on social media platforms. This analysis arrives on the heels of an investigation by the intelligence firm Graphika, which found no substantial decrease in the activity levels of political communities that were allegedly affected.

DiResta, who is an associate research professor at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy, criticized the viral narrative stating that it seemed more like fiction than reality. She emphasized that the evidence supporting such claims was primarily anecdotal—many users perceived that platforms appeared less hostile, but this did not translate into concrete measurements of account activity.

The drone strikes began on October 8, targeting Yandex facilities in Sasovo, Kaluga, and Vladimir, resulting in significant disruptions to cloud and consumer services throughout Russia. After the third attack, Yandex announced a cessation of operations at its Vladimir site. Following these strikes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked at the Warsaw Security Forum that the online environment had suddenly become less suffocating, attributing this to a reduction in Russian-origin bots.

Data from Cloudflare Radar indicated a dramatic decline in bot-classified traffic from Yandex’s primary network, reporting a more than 99% reduction from the week prior by the early hours of October 11. Many users shared this data, claiming it demonstrated the disappearance of Russian accounts across online communities, including those aligned with Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland and supporters of former President Donald Trump.

However, as DiResta and Graphika pointed out, most of the traffic referenced belonged to Yandex’s software that catalogues websites for its search engine. When the company’s facilities were offline, this traffic naturally decreased, and this change did not provide visibility into who was actively posting or sharing on social media platforms.

Graphika further examined the six most-shared posts related to the situation, noting that they collectively garnered around 6.3 million views. Their analysis found that the communities mentioned in these posts maintained their usual levels of activity, with the most prolific users continuing to post as before.

Interestingly, discussions related to MAGA on X saw an increase after the drone strike on the Vladimir site, rising 25% in activity over the subsequent eight hours compared to similar timeframes on the previous four Sundays. While it was noted that activity among Russian-speaking users on platforms like Telegram did experience a decline—between 5% and 15%—over the 48 hours after the Vladimir strike, the overall activity levels remained relatively stable, particularly in Ukrainian, Iranian, and Romanian contexts.

Moreover, the Kremlin-linked operators have historically obscured their online activities by utilizing servers located abroad and employing VPNs and proxy services, making it unlikely for the Yandex outage to significantly disrupt their operations. DiResta highlighted this ongoing trend in her analysis.

In a related context, Graphika previously linked a separate Russia-aligned campaign to unverified claims targeting U.S. midterm candidates and German politicians, emphasizing the persistent nature of such online influence operations. Meanwhile, concerns have mounted among Democrats in the House Select Committee on China regarding the Trump administration’s weakening of U.S. defenses against foreign disinformation efforts. They have pointed out the closure of an FBI unit dedicated to monitoring these influences, along with cuts to key cybersecurity positions.

In addition, social media platforms have restricted access to much of the data that independent researchers typically rely upon, as highlighted by DiResta mentioning Meta’s decommissioned CrowdTangle tool. This hasn’t only limited the capacity for researchers to analyze online disinformation but has also raised questions about the transparency of data related to influence campaigns.