Fighting in Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces is ongoing, with slow progress being made by the Ukrainians against entrenched Russian forces. The conflict largely consists of artillery strikes along the line of contact. However, Ukrainian air defenses have proven to be effective against Russian drones and cruise missiles. In response to the escalating situation, US President Joe Biden has ordered the call-up of military reservists, up to a maximum of 3,000, to support Operation Atlantic Resolve.
Operation Atlantic Resolve, which has been ongoing since 2014, involves the rotational deployment of combat-ready forces to Europe in order to demonstrate the United States’ commitment to NATO. It aims to enhance readiness, increase interoperability, and strengthen bonds between allied and partner militaries. Given the current war between Russia and Ukraine, Atlantic Resolve is of particular importance in maintaining NATO’s readiness.
The US Department of Defense has clarified that President Biden’s order is not a deployment order, but rather makes reservists available for deployment if deemed necessary by US European Command. Meanwhile, Russia has scaled back its Navy Day fleet review due to wartime exigencies. Specifically, nuclear-powered submarines from Russia’s Northern Fleet will not be participating in the fleet review. This decision is likely due to the need for maintenance and availability for operations and training, as well as potential internal security concerns following the Wagner Group’s attempted mutiny.
Speaking of the Wagner Group, the US Department of Defense believes that the mercenary group will no longer play a significant role in the fighting in Ukraine. According to a Pentagon spokesman, there is no indication of Wagner forces participating in combat operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin also offered an account of his meeting with Wagner Group leaders, stating that they were given the opportunity to return to the fighting under the same field commander, but declined. Putin characterized the mercenary formations as extralegal and likely illegitimate.
In a significant development, Major General Ivan Popov, commanding general of the 58th army in the Zaporizhzhia sector, was dismissed from his post. General Popov had been critical of Russia’s Ministry of Defense, stating that he refused to lie for the sake of his troops and fallen comrades. His public dissent has drawn attention from figures within the Russian establishment, with some supporting his criticisms. However, the general’s appeal to President Putin remains within the Russian tradition of blaming internal figures for problems.
Meanwhile, cyber attacks continue to be a part of the conflict. Researchers from Cisco Talos have discovered recent cyberespionage activity attributed to the ghostwriter threat actor group, allegedly linked to the Belarusian government. The targets of the attacks are Ukrainian and Polish military and governmental organizations. Additionally, Russian and Ukrainian hacktivist auxiliaries have engaged in distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. These attacks, while not significant, highlight the ease with which cyber warfare can be conducted.
As the war in Ukraine progresses, lessons are being learned about cyber warfare. The Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests that cyber operations will play a supporting role rather than a decisive one in major theater wars. Its primary contributions will likely be intelligence collection and operational deception. The study also emphasizes that war will continue to rely on the tangible effects of violence over compromising information networks. However, cyber operations remain a useful tool in political warfare, posing a fundamental threat to human liberties.
Amidst the developments in the conflict, there are conflicting reports about the whereabouts of Colonel General Surovikin. While some sources claim he is taking a break in Rostov-on-Don, others find it unlikely due to the proximity of the city to the frontlines. The city of Rostov has issued warnings to its residents about potential terrorist attacks by Ukrainian diversionary troops acting under NATO orders and wearing Russian uniforms.