Ukrainian forces have made significant advances in Zaporizhia, successfully breaking through Russian prepared defenses, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. These advances are seen as crucial in supporting a large-scale mechanized advance. The Institute for the Study of War also noted continued Ukrainian progress in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhia, with the Ukrainian General Staff and Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar claiming “unspecified success” in both areas. One notable advantage for the Ukrainians is their clear superiority in counterfire capability, allowing them to effectively neutralize Russian artillery.
A key factor in Ukraine’s recent successes is their utilization of drones, which have been able to deliver strikes deep into Russian territory. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy revealed that they have developed weapons with a range of at least 700 miles, enabling them to hit targets as far east as Moscow. The significance of domestic production cannot be overstated, as Ukraine has assured its international suppliers that it will not use the weapons received from them to strike Russian territory. While some Western supporters of Ukraine fear provoking further escalation from Russia, there is no legal basis for exempting legitimate military targets within Russia from being attacked during a defensive war.
Ukrainian drones have become a growing threat to Russian airfields and air traffic. Several Russian airports have been temporarily closed due to activity by Ukrainian drones. In fact, Kazakhstan’s aviation ministry has recently issued a safety of flight warning for Russian airspace. These developments highlight Ukraine’s ability to project power beyond its borders and effectively challenge Russian military might.
Attention has also turned to the critical lines of communication into occupied Crimea. The UK’s Ministry of Defence has examined the Kerch Strait bridge and the measures Russia has taken to defend this strategic link. The Kerch Strait acts as a bottleneck for military logistics support to Russian forces in occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia has implemented a range of defensive measures including blockships, booms, smoke generators, and air defense batteries to safeguard the bridge from potential attacks. The bridge functions as a vital route for both logistics and symbolism of Russian occupation, necessitating extensive protection measures. Russia’s creation of an underwater barrier and the deployment of smoke generators demonstrate their commitment to fortifying the crossing.
As the conflict escalates, the cyber domain has also played a significant role. The GRU’s cyberespionage attempts, known as Sandworm, have targeted Ukrainian military installations. The war’s cyber phases have provided valuable lessons for both sides. Ukraine has been largely successful in defending itself against Russian cyber operations, but it has been a close contest. The Ukrainian authorities had to swiftly relocate critical data and services abroad to mitigate the risk of kinetic attacks. Cloud services emerged as a vital tool, although many government agencies were unprepared for the transition. International cooperation and partnerships, both with friendly governments and the private sector, played a crucial role in overcoming challenges.
Furthermore, hacktivism has seen a resurgence amid the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. State-inspired and state-directed groups have taken center stage, operating as auxiliaries, semi-criminal organizations, or fronts for intelligence services. Russia has contributed to this trend with groups like KillNet and privateering gangs. The lines of attribution between threats have become increasingly blurred, making it challenging for security researchers and defenders to distinguish between cybercriminal, nation-state, and hacktivist activity. Distributed denial-of-service attacks have become the preferred method of hacktivist activity, with these groups utilizing readily available commodity malware. Additionally, hacktivism provides nation-states with opportunities to disguise their activities behind deniable front groups.
As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, it is clear that Ukraine’s military capabilities have surpassed expectations. The consolidation and expansion of Ukrainian advances, combined with their effective use of domestic drone production and strong cyber defenses, have allowed them to challenge Russian dominance. The conflict serves as a reminder of the importance of international cooperation, the consequences of cyber warfare, and the evolving tactics of hacktivist groups.