In the realm of cybersecurity, the workload for defenders is constantly shifting and expanding. The proliferation of software and applications within organizations has widened the attack surface, leading to an increase in vulnerabilities. According to the Verizon “2024 Data Breach Investigations Report,” 14% of breaches now involve the exploitation of vulnerabilities as an initial access point, a substantial rise from previous years.
As vulnerability exploitation becomes more prevalent, the task of prioritizing and addressing these vulnerabilities becomes arduous and time-consuming without a clear protocol in place. The repercussions of major incidents such as the Log4j and MOVEit breaches have left a lasting impact on cybersecurity practices, serving as valuable lessons for defenders in the field.
Key Considerations for Vulnerability Evaluation
The initial steps in vulnerability evaluation are akin to basic reading comprehension skills: understanding the who, what, when, where, and why of the situation at hand:
Who: Identifying the sources discussing vulnerabilities, including peers, industry experts, and government advisories, while also being aware of potential misinformation on social media and online platforms.
What: Analyzing the exploitability of a vulnerability, determining if it can be exploited over a network or locally, and assessing if exploit code is publicly available.
When: Understanding the timeline of the vulnerability, including when it was disclosed and if any instances of exploitation have been observed.
Where: Pinpointing the presence of the vulnerability in your environment and assessing its potential impact based on location. This includes checking for mentions in software bill of materials (SBOM) or vendor advisories to guide remediation efforts.
Why: Grasping the significance of the vulnerability in light of current adversary behavior trends, while also considering metrics like Common Vulnerability Scores and Exploit Prediction scores for prioritization purposes.
Learning From Large-Scale Incidents
MOVEit: Reflecting on the MOVEit Transfer vulnerability incident of 2023, it demonstrated the potential impact of adversary behavior on exploitation likelihood, the urgency of addressing zero-day vulnerabilities with low attack complexity, and the critical nature of vulnerabilities that transcend supply chains.
Log4j: The Log4j incident of 2021 underscored the challenges of identifying vulnerable software components within an organization, particularly due to its remote exploitability, pre-disclosure of exploit, widespread availability of exploit code, and prevalence across numerous software packages worldwide. The incident highlighted the necessity of accurate asset inventories and SBOM adoption to enhance vulnerability response capabilities.
Knowing the Score With Vulnerabilities
Cybersecurity defenders can leverage various databases and scoring frameworks, such as the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog and the National Vulnerability Database (NVD), to refine their vulnerability management strategies. As organizations advance in maturity, they can integrate continuous monitoring, automation, and vulnerability management tools with configuration management databases (CMDBs) to bolster detection and remediation efforts.
Looking ahead, the industry may witness a shift towards a secure-by-design philosophy among software suppliers, driven by potential regulations, increased liability for security executives, and a focus on customer trust. Emerging technologies like machine learning and artificial intelligence may also play a role in expediting and guiding vulnerability prioritization, while emphasizing the importance of human oversight. With the anticipation of a surge in emerging vulnerabilities, the need for an effective prioritization strategy remains paramount in the evolving cybersecurity landscape.