Drone exchanges between Russia and Ukraine continued overnight, with both sides claiming to have shot down enemy drones. Russia claims to have shot down six Ukrainian drones en route to Moscow, while Ukraine reports that it shot down “almost fifteen” Russian drones heading for Kyiv. The ongoing conflict between the two countries has escalated with recent events, including a Ukrainian surface drone strike against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
In the Ukrainian surface drone strike, pilotless boats carrying 450 kilograms of high explosives were used against Russian naval units in Novorossiisk. One large amphibious warfare ship, the Olenegorsky Gornyak, was severely damaged and rendered combat ineffective. Russian sources claim that all Ukrainian drones were destroyed and that Russia sustained no damage. However, video footage provided by Ukrainian sources appears to show the strike and the Olenegorsky Gornyak listing severely to port and settling while under tow. The videos, although unverified, are seen as evidence of the growing use of crowd-sourced Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT).
The drone attacks have also affected civilian areas. The port of Novorossiisk, a major Russian Black Sea port and naval base, was temporarily closed after the drone strike. It serves as a terminal for oil and grain exports and services began to be restored after a few hours of closure.
However, the conflict has also extended beyond military targets. Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian cities has caused damage to numerous cultural sites, including religious sites, museums, buildings of historical or artistic interest, monuments, and libraries. UNESCO officials have officially verified damage to 274 Ukrainian heritage sites since the start of Russia’s invasion. President Putin’s repeated assertions that Ukrainian nationality is fictitious are seen as a contributing factor to this deliberate campaign against Ukrainian culture. Russian state media and Orthodox media have echoed and amplified these opinions.
The use of drones in the conflict is significant, especially near NATO territory and Danube ports. The UK’s Ministry of Defence believes that Russia views drones as less likely to provoke retaliation compared to air or missile strikes. Russia has been conducting strikes against Ukrainian ports on the Danube River using Iranian-produced one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles. These strikes are likely an attempt to coerce international shipping into stopping trading via the ports. However, Romania has protested these strikes, as they have occurred as close as 200 meters from the Romanian border.
Russia’s sensitivity to the vulnerability of occupied Crimea has also come to light. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for the recent attack against the Kerch Strait Bridge, the second such strike during the war. Moscow is growing increasingly sensitive to reporting of Ukrainian operations in Crimea, even among hard-war mil-bloggers. The issue of strikes against Crimea is a sensitive point in the pro-war Russian information space.
Recruiting challenges are becoming apparent for Russia as it struggles to recruit enough contract soldiers. The country has resorted to trickery and coercion, and even produced a weepy television series about the women who love soldiers fighting for Russia to boost morale. Ukrainian sources claim that Russian contract soldiers are doing everything they can to avoid frontline service. The recruitment efforts are not limited to Russia alone, as Kazakhstan citizens are being offered enlistment bounties to join the Russian army.
Cyber attacks have also been prevalent in the ongoing conflict. The recent cyberespionage campaign by the SVR, as described by Microsoft, has gained significant attention. Additionally, Ukrainian hacktivist auxiliaries have been disrupting Russian online services. Both sides are engaged in cyber warfare as part of the larger conflict.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine remains tense, with drone exchanges, cultural site destruction, and cyber attacks continuing. The conflict shows no signs of immediate resolution, and both sides are employing various tactics to gain an advantage. International attention and efforts toward de-escalation are crucial in mitigating further damage and casualties.