Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to engage in drone and missile strikes over the weekend, with Russian forces targeting civilian infrastructure and grain facilities, according to reports from Al Jazeera. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has documented the incremental Ukrainian advances in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on both Friday and Saturday. The southern operational objective remains Melitopol. However, the situation remains fluid, with Russian “tactical” counterattacks reported in Robotyne on Sunday.
In a friendly fire incident, a Russian SU-35 was shot down over Tokmak last Thursday by an S-300 air defense system. The incident highlights the complexities and risks involved in such conflicts.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has noted the growing role of Russian naval aviation in the Black Sea. The Naval Aviation component of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has taken on a crucial role in dealing with threats on the southern flank of the Ukraine war. Emphasizing maritime air patrol operations, Russian naval aviation aims to identify uncrewed surface vessels. The use of Be-12 MAIL amphibious aircraft, Su-24 FENCER and FLANKER variant combat jets, and strikes on strategically located Snake Island demonstrate Russia’s efforts to project force over the north-western Black Sea.
Saturday marked a new Russian holiday called “Reunification Day,” celebrating the annexation of territories from Ukraine. Former President Dmitry Medvedev stated during observances that there would be more reunifications to come, indicating Russia’s ambitions for further annexations. However, these annexations are widely regarded as illegal, except in Russia itself and a few sympathetic countries.
The fortunes of the rump Wagner Group, a controversial private military company, have been closely watched by the UK’s MoD. There is evidence to suggest that Russia’s Ministry of Defense is competing with Rosgvardia for the services of Wagner alumni. It is believed that Andrey Troshev, a former Wagner Group commander, will recruit current and former Wagnerites into either the regular military or the Ministry-affiliated company Redut. However, many Wagnerites are already serving with Rosgvardia, and negotiations are underway for Rosgvardia volunteer formations to include Wagner personnel. Belarus is also seeking to establish its own private military company with Wagner veterans.
The leaked documents from Russia’s Finance Ministry indicate an increase in the defense budget to 6% of the country’s GDP, or roughly 30% of all public expenditures. This suggests that Russia is preparing for multiple more years of fighting in Ukraine. Defense Minister Shoigu even stated that he was prepared for the war to last until 2025.
The Duma is considering expanding the FSB’s surveillance authorities to have more control over Russian Internet, banking, and telecommunications users. While this expansion is seen as a security measure, it also raises concerns about privacy and data security.
The growing self-censorship of Russian bloggers and social media users has created an opportunity for fringe elements to criticize and speculate about senior Russian military commanders without facing backlash. Additionally, reports suggest that the Russian government has engaged the organization Dialog to categorize Russian internet users to target them with tailored messaging based on their beliefs, interests, and political beliefs.
In other news, the British Royal family’s official website experienced a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack on Sunday, which temporarily took the site down. The hacktivist group KillNet claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it was targeting pedophiles. However, these claims have not been verified.