The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage on, now entering its 447th day. The conflict has escalated in recent days, with heavy drone and cruise missile strikes against Ukraine, prompting Ukraine to answer with British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.
On day 446, Ukraine claimed that it shot down all 18 missiles in an overnight attack on Kyiv, while Russia claimed that a hypersonic Kinzhal missile destroyed a Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system. Tuesday’s assault on Kyiv marks the eighth time this month that the city has been targeted by Russia.
However, despite the heavy drone and missile strikes, Ukrainian air defences managed to thwart an intense Russian air attack on Kyiv, shooting down all 18 missiles aimed at the capital. The attack came as European leaders sought new ways to punish Russia for the war, while a Chinese envoy sought traction for Beijing’s peace proposal. The nighttime attack combined Russian missiles launched from the air, sea, and land in an apparent attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences. No casualties were reported as Western-supplied weapons helped fend off the assault. A Ukrainian official described Russia’s latest attack on Kyiv as “exceptional in its density”.
Meanwhile, Ukraine struck Russian-held Luhansk with new, longer-range missiles, revealing a new tactic to hit deep inside Russian-held territory. Smoke could be seen rising in the eastern city, even as Moscow claimed that British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles were used.
The war is entering a critical phase as Kyiv continues preparations for a counter-offensive. The anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive will likely occur soon, although it is impossible to tell exactly when such an attack might take place. Those speculating on the timing of the attack need to understand the complex challenge facing Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly has aggressive instincts and is privately plotting bold attacks inside Russia, leaked intercepts reveal. Meanwhile, Moscow is seeking more lethal drones from Tehran, which wants attack helicopters and other military equipment from Russia in return.
Germany and France have pledged more aid to Ukraine, with Germany announcing its largest weapons package yet for Ukraine, totaling nearly $3 billion in arms and making Germany the second-largest military aid supplier to Ukraine, behind the United States. The United Kingdom also plans to train Ukrainian pilots and supply more missiles and drones, while the United States will lead the training of Ukrainian tank crews and maintainers.
Despite the pledges of aid, the end of Ukraine aid is rapidly approaching, and reupping it won’t be easy. The Pentagon could run out of money for weapons by midsummer, leaving Kyiv without much-needed Nato weaponry. NATO is also mulling future security guarantees for Ukraine but is wary of igniting a wider war.
Even as the war continues to rage on, cybercriminals and hackers are also targeting both Ukraine and Russia. Internet outages have affected Sudan and Pakistan, with experts concerned about people in both countries being cut off from the web amid political turmoil. Twitter has also been accused of restricting content before the Turkish presidential election, while a new APT hacking group dubbed Lancefly uses a custom ‘Merdoor’ backdoor malware to target government, aviation, and telecommunication organizations in South and Southeast Asia.
In addition, emerging ransomware groups are quickly targeting critical infrastructure providers, with Linux and VMware ESXi systems under attack by the new ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) operation MichaelKors. The infostealer market is also thriving, serving as a key enabler for the most damaging forms of cybercrime, such as ransomware attacks.
Ultimately, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with both sides resorting to new tactics and weapons. It remains to be seen how the conflict will end and what the lasting effects will be for both countries.