Russia resumed missile strikes against Ukrainian cities, causing devastation and loss of civilian lives. The recent attack targeted Kramatorsk’s commercial district, resulting in the deaths of at least four people and injuring forty-two others. Radio Free Europe | Radio Liberty has reported that the areas hit were not military targets but instead included shops, hotels, and restaurants. This has raised concerns about Russia’s tactics and the intent behind these strikes.
According to The Telegraph’s correspondent, these missile strikes are seen as a “missile terror campaign” designed to divert attention from the recent failed march on Moscow by the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group, under the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin, was involved in a mutiny against the Russian government. Prigozhin, who has now fled to Belarus, was reportedly discussing the possibility of killing him before he left Russia. President Lukashenka of Belarus has offered the Wagner Group an abandoned military installation for their use, raising concerns among NATO members in Eastern Europe about the potential reconstitution of the group’s combat forces.
There is speculation about the involvement and support of high-level military officials in Russia. General Sergei Surovikin, who previously commanded Russian forces in Ukraine and is now one of General Gerasimov’s deputies, is believed to have been aware of the mutiny. It is unclear whether his awareness amounted to sympathy or support for the Wagner Group. President Putin has dismissed these accounts as “gossip.” The Wagner Group’s mutiny has prompted speculation about who may ultimately benefit from it, with attention being drawn to General Viktor Zolotov, the commander of Russia’s National Guard. The National Guard, directly answering to the President, is responsible for suppressing popular revolts and civic disorder. General Zolotov has been vocal in blaming “the West” for the mutiny.
President Putin has been attempting to present an image of national unity, stability, and control to the Russian public. Surprisingly, he openly acknowledged that Russia has been funding the Wagner Group. From May of the previous year through May of this year, the Russian government reportedly paid the Wagner Group the equivalent of a billion dollars. An additional billion went to Prigozhin’s Concord catering company, which supplies food to the Russian military. President Putin mentioned the possibility of corruption in these transactions.
The United States is closely monitoring the situation, reiterating that it had no involvement in the Wagner Group’s mutiny and remains committed to supporting Ukraine. The US has long held disapproval of the Wagner Group, dating back to their activities in Africa and the Middle East. New sanctions have been imposed on gold-mining and resource trading firms connected to the Wagner Group. In addition, the US has announced a new aid package of $500 million for Ukraine, including various munitions and equipment.
Switzerland’s Federal Intelligence Service has warned of increased cyberespionage activities by Russia as their human intelligence networks are disrupted due to expulsions of officers working under diplomatic cover. Cyberespionage is seen as a compensatory measure when traditional espionage is denied.
The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime has released a report on the downfall of the Conti cybercrime group. After declaring their support for Russia in the Ukraine-Russia war, the group faced internal leaks and its operational capability began to disintegrate. However, there are reports suggesting that remnants of the group are still active.
Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and concerning, with ongoing missile strikes, the fleeing of key figures like Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the potential reconstitution of the Wagner Group in Belarus. The international community, particularly the United States and NATO, are closely monitoring the situation and providing aid and support to Ukraine. Russia’s cyberespionage activities and the downfall of the Conti cybercrime group also add to the complex dynamics of the conflict.