Russia’s missile campaign against civilian targets in Ukraine continues, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully shooting down a dozen Russian drones. However, Russian missiles were able to strike the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Izmail, causing significant damage. The attack on Odesa included the firing of a grain warehouse, while the strike on Izmail targeted a small Ukrainian port on the Danube River, disrupting the export of Ukrainian food. As a result of these attacks, global grain prices have increased, according to Reuters.
In response to alleged violations of Polish airspace by Belarusian military helicopters, Poland has deployed additional troops to its border with Belarus. Polish military sources claim that the aircraft crossed the border at a very low height, making it difficult to detect by radar. Reports from Polish residents living near the border support these claims of airspace incursions. Belarus, however, dismissed the charges as “old wives’ tales” and accused Poland of being influenced by its Western allies. Tensions between Belarus and Poland have been escalating, with the redeployment of Wagner Group units to Belarus and baseless claims from Russian President Putin that Poland has territorial ambitions towards Belarus.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has been analyzing Russia’s ongoing efforts to increase its forces in Ukraine and its overall capabilities in the face of NATO. It is believed that Russia has recently formed major new formations, such as the 25th Combined Arms Army, to strengthen its ground forces. Previously, Russia had mainly deployed mobilized reservists or established territorial defense infantry regiments. The creation of these new formations suggests that Russia is aiming to have a self-sufficient force in Ukraine. However, Russia’s long-term goal is to strengthen its forces facing NATO.
Norway recently discovered that its government networks were targeted in a cyberespionage campaign that lasted for four months before being detected. The campaign, believed to be orchestrated by Russian intelligence services, exploited a vulnerability in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile. The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Norwegian National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC-NO) have released a joint cybersecurity advisory on the incident, providing guidance on detection, remediation, and prevention. They are particularly concerned about the potential for widespread exploitation of mobile device management systems in government and private sector networks.
President Putin of Russia has signed into law a bill that aims to reduce or eliminate online privacy in the country. Under the new law, foreign email systems will be prohibited, and domestic platforms will be required to verify the identity of all users through government-approved methods. While VPNs are not outright banned, the remaining VPN services in Russia are compliant with state regulations and offer little to no anonymity or privacy. Attempting to evade identity verification requirements will be considered a crime. Furthermore, posting advice on how to use VPNs or similar tools for circumvention purposes will also be deemed illegal. This law reflects Russia’s increasing control over information, censorship, and repression of dissent.
Overall, the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with Russia targeting civilian infrastructure and Ukraine’s food exports. Tensions between Belarus and Poland also remain high, fueled by accusations and military movements. The cyberespionage campaign against Norway highlights the ongoing threat of Russian intelligence services. Lastly, Russia’s new legislation restricting online privacy further demonstrates its return to a more authoritarian and repressive regime.