Russian missile attacks in Ukraine continue to target civilian morale rather than military capabilities, according to The Washington Post. On Saturday, a ballistic missile struck the Taras Shevchenko Theater in central Chernihiv, resulting in the death of seven individuals, including a six-year-old child, and injuring at least 144 others. The theater was hosting a civilian exhibition about drones, making it a clear target for Russian forces. This deliberate targeting of public events is an attempt to emotionally affect Ukrainians, as stated by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar. This tactic is not new, as Russian forces have previously struck public events without prior public announcements.
In response, Ukraine conducted its own drone strike on the Soltsy airbase in the Novgorod Oblast. Russian sources indicate that the strike caused damage to at least two aircraft due to resulting fires. The Soltsy airbase was home to a number of Tu-22M3 supersonic strategic bombers, which have now been relocated to Olenya air base in the Murmansk Oblast.
Over the course of Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, Ukrainian drone strikes forced the closure of two Moscow airports, Vnukovo and Domodedovo. Drones were also spotted in Kursk and Rostov. Additionally, Ukrainian sea drone attacks on the Kerch Strait Bridge have disrupted supply lines into occupied Crimea, resulting in a gasoline shortage and the implementation of fuel rationing.
These strikes in rear areas and against lines of communication into occupied Crimea have generated discontent among Russian mil-bloggers. They are now calling for retaliation against Ukrainian leaders and their families, citing the success of similar tactics in Lebanon and Syria. Mil-bloggers also report a growing shortage of junior officers at the front, indicating potential challenges for the Russian forces.
The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) notes that Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS) are under intense pressure to improve air defenses over western Russia. In recent months, there has been an increase in threats penetrating deep inside Russia. Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles regularly target Moscow, and there have been reports of SA-5 GAMMON missiles striking Russia. The MoD believes that the pressure to improve air defenses will fall on VKS Chief of Staff Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov.
Regarding the current state of the conflict, Ukrainian forces have made advances in securing the village of Urozhaine along the Mokri Yaly river. However, Russian forces continue to launch probing attacks in the Kupiansk area without significant advancements. Both sides face the challenge of defeating entrenched forces with limited uncommitted forces available for new assaults.
The New York Times reports that Ukraine is preparing for a longer war than initially expected. Achieving a decisive breakthrough has proven challenging, and preparations are being made to sustain the conflict in the long term. As a response to wartime realities, Russia is expanding its military structures. The 18th Combined Arms Army is likely to be formed, mainly comprising mobilized personnel focused on defensive security operations in southern Ukraine.
A change in leadership within the Russian military has also occurred. Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, the theater commander in Ukraine, died after a long illness. He had previously served as the head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. Colonel General Sergei Surovikin, known as “General Armageddon” for his service in Syria and the construction of the Surovikin Line, has been removed from command. He was relieved of his duties following the Wagner Group mutiny and is reportedly under house arrest.
Russian disinformation and influence operations continue to shape the narrative of the conflict. Recent themes seek to portray Poland as seeking to recover territories annexed by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, in a lengthy interview with TASS, portrays Russia as the victim of aggression, with Ukraine acting as a proxy for the United States. Disinformation tactics, such as threatening texts from Russian bot operators to residents of Kherson, are also employed to manipulate public opinion.
Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with missile strikes targeting civilians and military retaliation from both sides. The conflict has entered a new phase, characterized by prolonged warfare and shifting military structures. The influence and disinformation campaigns are further exacerbating tensions and shaping the narrative of the conflict to suit respective agendas.