Ukrainian forces have resumed “marginal” advances along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, accompanied by a counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut, according to a report by The Institute for the Study of War. Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers continue to express dissatisfaction with the leadership and support given to units on the front lines. Among the milbloggers, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky is receiving positive attention for supposedly rescuing a depleted brigade by temporarily removing it from combat.
In a significant development, Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence service claimed responsibility for a successful drone strike on a Russian factory in Smolensk. The factory produces Kh-59 missiles and was struck by four drones. This successful attack further highlights the capabilities of Ukrainian forces in countering the Russian offensive.
On a more concerning note, Russian shelling in Kherson resulted in the destruction of shops, homes, and other civilian structures, leading to the reported death of two individuals. The ongoing conflict continues to pose a significant threat to civilian populations and infrastructure.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has highlighted the use of the “foreign agent” designation as a tool to manipulate public opinion in favor of the state’s anti-West and pro-war narratives. The ministry points to a recent poll conducted by Russia’s state-owned Russian Public Opinion Research Centre, which found that 61% of respondents considered “foreign agents” to be traitors disseminating lies about Russia. The “foreign agent” legislation has been expanded since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, effectively narrowing the information space within Russia and limiting dissenting viewpoints.
A comprehensive essay published by the Institute for the Study of War delves into President Putin’s motivations and objectives for the conflict. The essay argues that Putin invaded Ukraine not out of fear of NATO but rather due to his belief in its weakness, failed attempts to regain control of Ukraine through other means, and the perceived ease of installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. Putin’s goal is to expand Russia’s power, eradicate Ukraine’s statehood, and destroy NATO. The essay concludes that achieving real peace requires assisting Ukraine in delivering an unequivocal military defeat to Russia and rebuilding the country to be strong and resilient.
An apt analogy can be drawn between the current conflict and the Axis aggression of the 1930s. Both aggressors were driven by historical grievances and visions of power and dominance. The defeat and unconditional surrender of Germany and Japan during World War II dispelled their illusions. The lesson drawn from history is that weakness and concessions without clear battlefield victory are interpreted as surrender by Moscow.
As Ukraine prepares for winter attacks on its energy infrastructure, it expects a repeat of last winter’s Russian counter-grid program. Ukraine anticipates kinetic attacks as well as cyberattacks on power generation and distribution. Efforts are underway to increase resilience against these threats.
The US Intelligence Community predicts that Russia will launch influence operations targeting US support for Ukraine. Russian disinformation campaigns, particularly about NATO, the US, and the UK, have been prevalent during the conflict. However, the forthcoming round of influence operations is expected to be more disruptive in concept. This includes targeting US elections next year to support candidates unsympathetic to Ukraine and undermining candidates who favor continued US support for Kyiv. The use of influence washing and troll farms, coordinated by Russian intelligence services, is anticipated.
Despite ongoing challenges, Ukraine’s military continues to press forward, while Russia faces increasing criticism and internal dissatisfaction. The conflict remains a complex and evolving situation with far-reaching implications for both regional stability and international relations.