In Ukraine, the advance in the southern region continues to be slow but steady, with Ukrainian forces gaining ground in increments of a few hundred meters. Meanwhile, Russia’s “active defense” strategy in the north appears to be making little progress against the city of Avdiivka.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian sources have reported that Ukrainian units are conducting “larger-than-usual” operations on the east bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast. These Ukrainian units are described as small diversionary and reconnaissance units. Despite Russian counterattacks, Ukrainian forces have managed to maintain a presence along the shoreline and near the Antonivsky railway bridge. Geolocated footage supports these claims, indicating that Ukrainian forces have successfully held their ground against Russian attempts to push them back.
In another development, the UK Ministry of Defence has provided further analysis of the recent ATACMS missile strikes carried out by Ukraine against Russian targets. The strikes, which took place on October 17, targeted Russian helicopters and air defense equipment at Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields. While the extent of the damage is yet to be confirmed, it is believed that nine Russian military helicopters at Berdyansk and five at Luhansk were destroyed. This marks the first time Ukraine has used the US-provided long-range army tactical missiles (ATACMS). The loss of helicopters is a significant setback for Russia, as they had been filling the gap left by the underperforming fixed-wing combat aviation. With their reliance on rotary wing support, the loss of these helicopters will impact Russia’s ability to defend and carry out offensive actions on the southern axis. It will also put additional strain on Russia’s pilots and airframes, which are already dealing with combat exhaustion and maintenance issues.
Confirming Ukraine’s use of ATACMS, Al Jazeera reports that Ukraine has arranged a regular supply of these missiles from the US. This will further enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities and provide them with an effective weapon against Russian forces.
Away from the frontline, the Baltic region is facing a wave of emailed bomb threats, believed to be part of a coordinated campaign orchestrated by Russian operators. According to the Baltic Times, the email senders are actively participating in Telegram channels created by Russian-speaking pro-Russian groups. These individuals are spreading threats to blow up educational establishments, causing panic and destabilizing the situation in the region. The campaign began with 900 bomb threats against Lithuanian kindergartens and schools, and it continued over the weekend with 1500 threats against various public locations. Although the threats turned out to be empty and no bombs were found, they created additional burdens for law enforcement and disrupted the normal functioning of affected institutions. Lithuania’s Interior Minister, Agne Bilotaite, labeled it a regional attack since Estonia, Latvia, and Poland were also targeted.
Overall, Ukraine’s advancement, albeit slow, continues to pose challenges for Russia’s military operations. The use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine has dealt a blow to Russian aviation capabilities, necessitating a potential shift in strategy and operations. Additionally, the coordinated bomb threat campaign in the Baltic region serves as a reminder of the ongoing cyber disruptions orchestrated by Russian actors. The situation remains tense as both sides navigate the complexities of the conflict, highlighting the need for diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution.