According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia’s heavy losses of vehicles in the attack on Avdiivka will have a significant impact on their ability to launch further offensives. Over a hundred vehicles, including tanks and armored vehicles, have been destroyed in the battle. This loss of equipment will put a strain on Russia’s military capabilities.
In an effort to bolster their ranks, the Russian army has turned to recruiting convicts from prisons. These prisoners, who are offered cash bonuses and sentence remission upon completion of an 18-month tour, are being assigned to Storm-Z penal units. This practice of prison recruitment has been associated with the Wagner Group in the past, but now the regular army has taken it up on a larger scale. The Ministry of Defense has recruited approximately 100,000 prisoners, far more than the Wagner Group did. This recruitment strategy allows Russia to bring in much-needed manpower without resorting to another partial mobilization, which in the past has caused many military-age men to leave the country.
However, the BBC reports that some Russian units fighting in Avdiivka have experienced combat refusals, which are incidents where soldiers refuse to attack or retreat. In some cases, these soldiers have been summarily executed under their officers’ orders. It seems that morale and discipline among Russian troops may be weakening as the conflict continues. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces have made small advances on the east bank of the Dnipro River and have continued offensive operations in other areas. This indicates that the Ukrainian military is still capable of mounting a resistance against Russian aggression.
Another interesting development is the pause in air-launched cruise missile strikes by the Russian Airforce’s Long Range Aviation fleet (LRA). The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) notes that this is one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the conflict began. It is believed that Russia is running short of cruise missiles and is conserving its stocks for use against Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter months. The MoD expects Russia to continue supplementing its campaign with Iranian-designed one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle attacks.
Russian intelligence services’ cyber operations in the hybrid war are also a cause for concern. ESET’s APT Activity Report for the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2023 reveals that Russian cyber activity remains focused on Ukraine. The main Russian APT groups tracked by ESET are Sandworm, Turla, Sednit, and Gamaredon. Gamaredon, in particular, has significantly enhanced its data-collecting capabilities by developing new tools. These tools target email clients such as Outlook and The Bat!, collect cookies from browsers like Opera and Firefox, and exfiltrate data from communication apps like Signal and Telegram. This shows that Russia’s cyber capabilities continue to pose a threat to Ukraine’s security.
In response to Russian disinformation campaigns, the US State Department has initiated a “prebunking” effort. The aim is to identify and refute disinformation before it spreads through amplification in legitimate and semi-legitimate channels. By exposing the fronts and agents of influence behind disinformation campaigns, the State Department hopes to discredit them early on and prevent their messages from gaining traction.
In addition to cyber operations, Russian hacktivist auxiliaries have also joined in the hybrid war. NoName057(16), a group specializing in DDoS attacks, has targeted Australian websites in protest of what they perceive as Australia’s “Russophobic” contributions to Ukraine’s war effort. The group has hit sites belonging to Adelaide Bank, Transperth, the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, and the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning, and Logistics. They criticize Australia’s decision to send a military aid package to Ukraine, claiming it will only provide more materiel for the Russians to capture.
Overall, the situation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains tense. Heavy losses on the Russian side, recruitment of prisoners, combat refusals, advances by Ukrainian forces, pause in air-launched cruise missile strikes, cyber operations, and hacktivist activities all contribute to the complex nature of this ongoing hybrid war. It is crucial for the international community to closely monitor and assess these developments to ensure the security and stability of the region.