Russia’s missile strikes against the port of Odessa have continued overnight, as part of Moscow’s strategy to interdict grain shipments and induce famine in order to pressure Western countries into relaxing sanctions and withdrawing support for Ukraine. This move has already had a significant impact, as world grain prices have risen in response to Russia’s newly announced blockade. However, these actions come with risks for Russia, including the alienation of its already shrinking number of international sympathizers.
In response to Russia’s blockade, Ukraine has issued a warning to mariners to avoid Russia’s Black Sea ports, specifically highlighting the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov as high-risk areas. The US has accused Russia of mining the Black Sea approaches to Ukrainian ports, an operation that has been widely advocated and applauded on Russian state television. To emphasize the blockade, Russian naval units have conducted anti-shipping missile firing drills in the Black Sea.
Meanwhile, the Wagner Group, a private military company, has announced its move to Belarus. In a video posted by the group’s proprietor, Evgeny Prigozhin, he stated that Wagner’s primary role in Belarus would be to train the Belarusian army to become “the second-best army in the world.” Prigozhin also mentioned that Wagner troops would follow the Belarusian army into combat if necessary. This move has raised concerns among neighboring countries, with Poland redeploying its own troops to counter the Wagnerite presence near its border.
The Wagner Group’s activities in Belarus and Africa continue to pose a threat. Poland now regards the group as a provocation and has taken measures to counter it. In Africa, the group is still offering its services to interested parties. The US Director of Central Intelligence, William Burns, believes that President Putin has not forgiven Prigozhin for the Wagner Group’s mutiny last month. Burns expects Prigozhin to face retribution at some point. Russian hacktivist auxiliaries, including Anonymous Sudan, have also continued their distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against Western organizations, with OnlyFans being the latest target.
Romania’s intelligence service, the SRI, has reported a pattern of cyberattacks from all three major Russian intelligence services (SVR, GRU, and FSB) since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. These cyberattacks highlight the aggressive and ongoing nature of Russia’s cyber operations beyond its military actions.
Overall, Russia’s continued missile strikes, the presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus and Africa, and the ongoing cyberattacks by Russian entities indicate a sustained and multi-faceted approach by Moscow to achieve its geopolitical objectives. The international community must remain vigilant and respond appropriately to these actions to ensure the stability and security of Ukraine and the broader region.