Slumping Stock and Slower Growth Than Rival Rubrik Pave Way for Take-Private Deal
On April 14, 2026, significant movement took place in the data protection sector, particularly concerning two key players: Commvault and Rubrik. As the landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) security continued to evolve, the fortunes of these cybersecurity companies diverged sharply. In 2024, the market had witnessed a surge in stock prices among data protection vendors, with Rubrik and Commvault standing out as two of the hottest stocks. Rubrik celebrated a successful initial public offering in April 2024, which saw its valuation soar above $10 billion by year-end, a remarkable increase of 76.5%. Meanwhile, Commvault, already established with an 18-year tenure on the public market, experienced an impressive stock rise of 96.1%, concluding 2024 with a valuation of $6.6 billion.
However, a stark contrast emerged in 2025. While Rubrik continued to thrive, recording a further 15.3% increase in its stock price and achieving a valuation of $15.31 billion thanks to its modern architecture and focus on security, Commvault faced difficulties. The latter adopted a more storage-centric approach to data protection, which resulted in a staggering 17.6% decline in its stock, causing its valuation to dip to $5.53 billion. Notably, in the most recent fiscal year reported by Rubrik, the company recorded a revenue growth of nearly 49%, reaching $1.32 billion, while Commvault anticipated only an 18.4% revenue growth to $1.18 billion for the fiscal year ending in March 2026.
The first quarter of 2026 proved challenging for both companies, with a broader downturn in the Software as a Service (SaaS) market known as the "SaaS-pocalypse." As of late this past Thursday, Rubrik’s stock had fallen approximately 39%, while Commvault’s experienced a drop of more than 35%. This competitive reality has underscored the intense pressure within the cybersecurity sector, which increasingly trends toward a “winner-takes-all” atmosphere, favoring Rubrik as the likely leader in market share.
In a development that signaled deeper implications, Reuters reported that Commvault was collaborating with Goldman Sachs to explore potential sale options following interest from private equity firms and strategic buyers. Among those expressing interest was Thoma Bravo, a private equity firm that had made previous offers for the company. Following this news, investors responded positively, pushing Commvault’s stock up nearly 13% to $88.52 per share—its highest trading mark since late February.
Commvault’s Struggles in the Market
Despite the technological strengths of Commvault, translating this excellence into stock performance competency has eluded the company. Analysts have consistently lauded Commvault’s technology. Forrester, for instance, ranked Commvault the highest among nine data resilience vendors, crediting it for its comprehensive workload support. Additionally, Gartner recognized the firm as one of the top players matched with Veeam concerning execution ability, commending Commvault’s cloud workload coverage strategies and its innovative cloud rewind capabilities.
Despite these accolades, Commvault’s market share in the data protection software realm has stagnated. During the period from 2019 to early 2024, its share fluctuated between 6.6% and 7.1%. In contrast, competitors like Veeam and Rubrik have made notable gains—Veeam’s share climbed from 9.2% to 12.9%, while Rubrik’s rose from 3.9% to 5.5%, eventually surpassing Commvault in overall size.
In response to these growing challenges, Commvault made strategic leadership changes by hiring former Ontinue CEO Geoff Haydon to enhance its go-to-market operations. As the newly appointed president of customer and field operations, Haydon’s mandate includes overseeing sales, partnerships, and customer support, which could pivotally influence the company’s trajectory.
As industry analysts continue to watch these developments, the overarching question remains: can Commvault leverage new leadership and, potentially, new ownership to navigate the complexities of a rapidly evolving cyber landscape fueled by AI innovations? The stakes are high for all players involved, as the landscape of cybersecurity continues to shift and adapt in light of emerging technologies.