The post-election crisis that brought 2023 to a close in Serbia looks set to shape 2024 too.

Parliamentary and partial local elections held in mid-December were marred by accusations of fraud levelled by an opposition bloc whose hopes of winning the capital, Belgrade, still hang in the balance.

Local and international observers criticised the lack of a level playing field, the role of President Aleksandar Vucic, and election-day irregularities, but it’s an opposition claim of voters being bussed to Belgrade from other parts of Serbia and abroad to cast ballots in the Belgrade municipal election that is most alarming.

The results of the parliamentary election presented the Serbian Progressive Party, already 11 years in power, with a new four-year mandate. But a majority coalition has yet to emerge in the Belgrade city assembly, amid uncertainty over whether the vote will be repeated.

What is certain is that the capital will again become a battlefield between the ruling parties and the opposition in full local elections scheduled for the spring.

That means a prolongation of the deep polarisation and hostile political atmosphere that has characterised Serbia for years, against a backdrop of stubbornly high inflation that is falling at a slower rate than for the rest of Europe.

“When the basis of your reign is corruption and abuse of institutions, a possible fall from power also means the possibility of criminal prosecution,” said sociologist and political analyst Dario Hajric.

“Therefore, the ruling party representatives treat the political struggle with the aggressiveness of someone who is fighting for life and death.”